Update Tropical Cyclone “NILOFAR” as on 29 October – 06:30 PM – October 29, 2014 According to the met office, the cyclone is moving towards the north and will start heading towards the north-east in the next 12 hours. The cyclone is expected to reach the coastal areas of Sindh and shoreline of Indian city Gujrat. Nilofar intensified on Tuesday with estimated wind speeds of 130 mph, according to the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre. The cyclone underwent rapid intensification, and became the third strongest tropical cyclone of record in the Arabian Sea, according to Dr. Jeff Masters fromWeather Underground. On Wednesday, Cyclone Nilofar’s winds weakened with wind speeds of 120 mph. Only Gonu in 2007 (165 mph winds) and Phet in 2010 (145 mph winds) were stronger Arabian Sea tropical cyclones in the historical record, according to Masters. According to The Weather Channel, Nilofar will curl sharply northeast and accelerate by later Wednesday, as upper-level jet stream winds grab hold of the cyclone, keeping Nilofar well east of the Arabian Peninsula. Further, these jet stream winds will impart increasing vertical wind shear, and drier air may also work into the cyclone. These two factors are expected to weaken Nilofar significantly by the time it makes landfall somewhere along the coast of India’s Gujarat state or extreme southeast Pakistan on late Friday. At the time of landfall, Nilofar is expected to be the strength of a mid-grade tropical storm, if not weaker. While several meteorologists are certain that the cyclone will not hit Pakistan directly, they believe that some parts of Balochistan and lower Sindh will be in the periphery of the tropical storm.
Posted on: Thu, 30 Oct 2014 06:41:07 +0000
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