WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES TYPHOON UTOR (LABUYO) UPDATE NUMBER 009 Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sunday 11 August 2013 Powerful Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) is now a destructive system with winds of 215 km/hr...endangers Aurora and Quirino Provinces. Landfall expected within the vicinity of Casiguran early Monday morning. Its rainbands now covering the whole of Luzon. This typhoon will enhance the weak Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Western Visayas and MiMaRoPa tonight and Monday. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes. Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of Utor (Labuyo). Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins. CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) was located over the the Philippine Sea...about 170 km north-northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte or 215 km southeast of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 24 km/hr in the general direction of Aurora-Quirino Area. Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 215 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers. Utor (Labuyo) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Utor (Labuyo) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm). 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK* Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Utor (Labuyo) will be approaching the eastern shoreline of Aurora late tonight...and will make landfall over Aurora between 2-3am Monday - passing over or very close to the town of Casiguran. The typhoon will then cut across Northern Luzon via Quirino-Nueva Vizcaya-Benguet-La Union beginning Monday morning until the early afternoon...and will emerge over the West Philippine Sea, just west of Ilocos Sur and La Union by late Monday afternoon. On Tuesday afternoon, Utor (Labuyo) will be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves WNW towards Southern China. Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue gaining strength within the next 12 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Utor reaching peak winds of more than 220 km/hr just after midnight, prior to making landfall over Aurora. On Monday afternoon, the typhoon will weaken to 160 km/hr after crossing Northern Luzon and will over the West Philippine Sea. The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system: MONDAY AFTERNOON: Over the West Philippine Sea, just west of Ilocos Sur...weakens slightly...about 140 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [5PM AUGUST 12: 17.4N 119.1E @ 160kph]. TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Moving across the South China Sea, outside of PAR...re-intensifies...about 340 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [5PM AUGUST 13: 19.2N 114.7E @ 165kph]. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Bears down the coast of Western Guangdong Area in Southern China...maintains its strength...about 135 km east-southeast of Zhanjiang, China [5PM AUGUST 14: 21.1N 111.8E @ 165kph]. *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.ph weather.ph/announcements/powerful-typhoon-utor-labuyo-update-number-009
Posted on: Sun, 11 Aug 2013 12:07:32 +0000
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