WEATHER SYNOPSIS: Dec 03 at 1030pm Valid until: Dec 04 at 12PM ■ 0 Potential;0 LPA/s;1 Active;1 Threat ■ ☆ TODAYS FORECAST w/in PAR ⊙ TY 22W(Hagupit) forecast to ENTER PAR b/w LATER TODAY & 4th. BIGGEST ADJUSTMENTS, Model shows a NO LANDFALL SCENARIO on the 7th, it recurve to the North & threatens Central Luzon-Cagayan Valley on the 10th. ■■■ ALERTS STAY (Only 1st Change of Tracks) ■■■ ■ PROJECTED PATH: 7th & 8th- Eastern Visayas; 8th & 9th - Masbate, Sorsogon, Albay, CamSur, CamNorte, Quezon ■ ※ RED ALERT(Evacuate, if needed) → Samar &Leyte Provinces ※ ORANGE ALERT(Monitor & Prepare) → Masbate, Sorsogon, Albay, CamSur, CamNorte, Quezon. ※ YELLOW ALERT(Monitoring is Advice) → Central Visayas, Caraga, CaLaBaRZon ※ GREEN ALERT(Monitor the Updates) → NCR, MiMaRoPa. ☆ FORECAST IN NEXT 7 DAYS * within 110E to 160E & Equator to 30N * ⊙ TY 22W(Hagupit) a VIOLENT & SLOW MOVING SYSTEM, tracking W to WNW slowly located near 9n 136e, Northeast of Palau/Southwest of Yap. *NOTE: → Monitored or Spotted Potential Area(PA) is subject for ADJUSTMENTS or CHANGES due to the absence of the System actual Structure. → Pre-tracks is to guide or to have knowledge the possible path of the System, when it is seen or visible. ■ Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Update ■ ※ As of Dec 02 ※ → Shows a slow transition of the focus of Tropical Activity from the Equatorial Indian Ocean to Southeast Asia and the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean. This movement in focus of cloud and rain is likely associated with a moderate to strong MJO event. → The risk of Tropical Cyclone development is also elevated. An active MJO over these longitudes at this time of year typically means an increased chance of tropical rainfall for Southeast Asia, Australias far Northern Tropics and the Equatorial Western Pacific Ocean. → Climate models suggest the MJO will remain active and continue to move eastwards reaching the Western Pacific Ocean by the end of the week. ※ Next MJO Update : Dec 09 ※ ~~~~~ °° Winds:1 kts = 1.852 kph ~ TD:139 kts °° Rainfall: 1mm/min = 0.0394 in/min = 2.364 in/hr °° Distance: 1 mi = 1.609 km ■ Satellite Imagery: GOES & NOAA Satellite. ■ Category/Intensity by World Meteorological Organization ■ Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Update by NOAA-ESRL ■ Thanks to NRL, CIMSS, NOAA, JTWC & WMO for PTU/PWS Basic Weather Forecasting & Pre-Forecast Tracking. © philweathersystem.weebly/
Posted on: Wed, 03 Dec 2014 14:40:08 +0000
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