WILL JOHN BOEHNER ALLOW IMMIGRATION REFORM TO COME UP FOR A VOTE IN THE HOUSE? As the Hispanic and Women’s votes become more and more important in deciding presidential elections, the question of the relevancy of the GOP in presidential elections becomes most important. It appears that only John Boehner can provide the answer to the question of National relevancy of his party. Nevertheless, the GOP will for the long term play an important role in selecting Senators and Representatives that serve in Washington, DC. The Morning Plum: Will John Boehner really kill historic opportunity to reform immigration? By: Greg Sargent Date: June 24, 2013 Source: washingtonpost/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/06/24/the-morning-plum-will-john-boehner-really-kill-historic-opportunity-to-reform-immigration/?hpid=z3 By all indications, the emerging immigration reform bill may get as many as 70 votes in the Senate this week, as Chuck Schumer predicted on CNN yesterday. And so attention is turning to the question of whether comprehensive reform has a prayer of passing the House. National Journal has a piece this morning capturing the emerging sense among many observers that House Republicans may kill reform on behalf of a GOP base that can’t accept it. But make no mistake: If the base does succeed in killing immigration reform, it’s only because House GOP leaders allowed it to. To be sure, the possibility that House Republicans may catch an earful from constituents during the coming August recess — dimming hopes for reform — is very real. As National Journal puts it: “The last time the Senate passed a major immigration bill in 2006, House Republicans used the August recess to kill it by staging a series of hearings around the country that did nothing but rile up conservatives against it.” That sounds scary. And look, it’s all but certain that in the end, a majority of House Republicans won’t support anything that includes a path to citizenship, which will cast real doubt on reform’s prospects. But what folks aren’t quite reckoning with yet is the amount of intense pressure John Boehner and other House GOP leaders are going to feel to let comprehensive reform come to a vote, even if it must pass the House with mostly Dems. Boehner has vowed this won’t happen. But if reform passes the Senate with 70 votes, leading GOP Senators such as John McCain and Lindsey Graham, and top members of the consultant/strategist establishment, such as Karl Rove, will fan across the airwaves and pummel away at the House GOP leadership to allow it to come to a vote, arguing that failure to do so will constitute demographic suicide. The Wall Street Journal editorial page and other GOP-aligned opinion leaders such as Sean Hannity will likely join the chorus. We already know that the GOP base is going to kick up a lot of noise against reform. The only question is whether the GOP leadership is willing to buck the base to let reform pass for the long term good of the party. If the Senate passes reform by a wide margin, Boehner will be in the position of having to decide whether to allow the House GOP to take the blame for killing a historic opportunity to reform our broken immigration system. To be clear, Boehner very well may end up deciding not to let comprehensive reform come to a vote if it must pass with mostly Dems; after all, many Republicans argue that reform won’t actually help the GOP. But the point is, this is not a certain outcome by any means. Don’t buy Boehner’s public insistence that he won’t allow anything to get a vote if it doesn’t have the support of a majority of House Republicans; there’s no reason to believe this has actually been decided; and you should certainly not rule out the possibility that in the end, Boehner may allow it to slip through. Will that imperil his Speakership? Not necessarily. If enough mainstream House conservatives privately want reform to pass, even if they’re not prepared to vote for it, he’d be okay. To be clear, we don’t know right now whether enough Republicans will reach this conclusion in the end. But they very well might. As for suggestions that the expected noise from the GOP base ensures that reform will die in the House, remember: if the base does kill reform, it will only be because Boehner let it happen.
Posted on: Mon, 24 Jun 2013 16:28:45 +0000
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