We need to vote in November, and we need to get all of the folks we know leaning blue registered and out to vote in November. That is what it is going to take. From Nate Silver: //A mild piece of good news for the Democrats is that the turnout gap may not be as large as it was in 2010. Both YouGov and NBC/Marist released results among both registered voters and likely voters in each of the states they polled — and on average, their likely-voter models showed the Republican candidate doing a net of about 2.5 percentage points better than in the registered-voter version of their surveys. That’s in line with the historical average gap between registered and likely voters in midterm years — rather than the 6-point gap that persisted throughout 2010. The FiveThirtyEight model automatically shifts registered-voter surveys toward Republicans to make them equivalent to likely-voter polls; this is one of the reasons our forecast is slightly more favorable to Republicans than others you might encounter. It’s likely that other models will show a shift toward Republicans and come to more closely match ours as more polling firms begin to release likely voter results.// fivethirtyeight/datalab/polls-show-path-of-least-resistance-to-gop-majority/
Posted on: Mon, 08 Sep 2014 21:53:56 +0000