Week 14 NFL As you may have read in this weeks Totally Covered, I went big on the Seahawks at Philly game; just had a lot of stuff lining up so need things to go well there and it should be a good day. Here is the full lineup for Sunday... SEA at PHI First thing I looked at was the divisional sandwich. Hawks are off SF with SF on-deck and Philly’s in a similar boat but they get home field here and a team coming from three time zones away. Anyway, the numbers that I show for the last five years showed scoring averages of 30-21 for the home side with 45 similar setups. This game also fits a system I’ve been working on for the last four years or so for late in the season when the home team is Pick `em or favored and the total is on the high side. I posted three plays for this back in Wk 11 and they went 1-2 so I backed off the past two weeks and just made notes and adjustments. It was 4-1 in Wk 12 and 2-1 last week (so 7-4 overall) but by adding a few tighteners for ‘yards per point’ on offense and defense as well as special team stats only three games out of the first 11 would have really fit and they went 3-0. It’s back-fitting to some degree but this is a work in progress and I’d rather have it hit higher on less plays. The only team that fits the new system in Wk 14 is Philly. The Eagles have the No. 1 special teams in the league and Philly is third pest in YPP behind the Packers and Patriots. SEA D is mid-pack in opponent YPP. Weather is supposed to be fine tomorrow in Philly; sun with 10 to 20 mph wind. Philly has also been tied or ahead at half-time every week game since Wk 3 except for the one at GB. They are fifth in the league in first-half PPG at home with 19.8. SEA avg’s 11 PPG in the first-half on the road this year, down from 12.4 last season. Three plays for this game: PHI first-half ML -115 PHI -115 ML PHI first-half TT OV 12.5 even (this is the system play; booked it at the Greek) Plays from Thursday’s thread BUF at DEN OV 47 -120 DAL at CHI OV 51; Cowboys won 41-28 – Winner PGH +3.5 -120 at CIN Week 14 Teasers DAL at CHI OV 41 to NOR +.5 to GB -2; the total hit on TNF, PGH +10.5 to DET -2.5 to NE +3.5; *These were added later Added a play on the Pats TT OV 27 -115 for Sunday night The OV is getting hit and I don’t know if this line will go to 27.5 but the juice will likely increase overnight. Also added another teaser; doubling down on the Saints to win straight-up Normally when a team goes from being a dog of more than +3 to a fave of more than +3 it’s an overreaction but in this case we have a team who is much better at home and coming off a non-divisional game to play a divisional opponent. There is no way I would lay the points on NOR in the full game but I like them to have a strong first-half, probably be winning by at least seven at the break and definitely see them winning the game straight-up. The fave in this spot is 21-2 in a 10-point teaser. Second play is SF +1.5 Lots of stuff on the Raiders being a good cover team here off a 40-burger but I think with San Fran coming off a straight-up loss they will figure out a way to win straight-up. Third play is TB at DET UN 51 The only thing that makes this game seem like it has a chance of going over is the fact that the Lions were a home Thursday game last week but TB has averaged just 19.5 PPG in dome games the past eight years and a lot of those D’s were not as talented as this Lions group. DET is a HF between divisional games here (MIN on-deck) and they won last week. The under is 4-12-1 O/U the last 10 years in this spot and even with Megatron back, I don’t think the Lions view this as a game where they need to score more than 30 points to win.
Posted on: Sat, 06 Dec 2014 20:25:50 +0000
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