We’re off another winning week to extend our streak to five-straight (29-15-1 ATS) in the NFL have already booked five top plays for Week 11. Heres a writeup from the Vikings and Bears matchup where Chicago tries to rebound from one of the more humiliating losses in recent memory. MIN at CHI (-3, O/U 46.5) The old saying is that no team will be as bad/good as they looked the previous week and in the Bears case, it should be true. After all, how could a team get any worse? The Bears are the first team in more than 25 years to allow 50-plus points two games in row. The good news for the Bears defense is that first of all, they don’t have to face another round of discount double-checks. This Minnesota offense is almost as bad as Green Bay’s is good and without AP, the Vikings are too unreliable to back in a divisional road game. We do have a couple solid angles supporting the under and the first is one that looks at steady progression on time of possession (TOP). The Bears have improved their TOP from 22:38 (MIA) to 27:17 (NE) to 30.19 (GB) but still lost all three. Look for a gameplan this week that tries to limit the Vikings offensive chances. This team is rattled right now and the fear of making mistakes could end up hurting them again. Divisional home teams in this spot are only 9-29 SU and 13-23-2 ATS, getting outscored 24-17 and staying under at a rate of 70-percent (11-26-1 O/U). When the line for divisional games was within +/-3 points of Pick the record since 1996 is 2-16 O/U. For 10 cents, we bought the hook in this game up to ‘47’. Its one of the most common numbers in football these days. Take the Vikings and Bears UNDER 47 (-120)
Posted on: Thu, 13 Nov 2014 07:13:08 +0000
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