What a harbinger for winter modeling. I SHOULD HAVE TRUSTED SOME OTHER THINGS THAN A MODEL! A lot to explain here, but the bottom line, MANY things were going AGAINST a big system from the beginning and it appears that the models were not seeing other features to ensure the system this weekend would be minor. The Mountain regions of SW VA and Western NC should see some more moderate amounts, but in general this event will dust some and maybe provide an inch for folks west of I-95. The further north you go the less the precipitation. We will have to watch as systems have been able to do better than forecast of precipitation amounts, but this was a big miss by the models and ME trusting them way too much instead of the other signals.. (No -NAO, no High Pressure to the north, and many more).. they 2 big factors changing this outcome... 1.) The kicker system in the west that is coming onshore and not allowing the system to slow 2.) Lack of any true blocking - THIS WAS A TIMING PERFECT event for the blocking scenario.. and it just isnt happening... SORRY ALL!
Posted on: Wed, 17 Dec 2014 15:13:42 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015