What on my mind? Simple Math. In a 23 September CDC report, a projection calculates a potential underreporting which is corrected by a factor of 2.5. With this correction factor, approximately 21,000 total cases are the estimate for the end of September 2014 in Liberia and Sierra Leone alone. The same report predicted that total cases, including unreported cases, could reach 1.4 million in Liberia and Sierra Leone by 20 January 2015 if no improvement in intervention or community behaviour occurred.[214] Folks, by my math, that is an increase of roughly 2000 times the number of cases (7,192 as of September 28) in a matter of four months. Project that same rate of increase for another four months....the number is in the billions. CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is estimated between 50 and 70%. The math tells me that this means over a billion deaths, conservatively estimated, by May 2015. Action is clearly called for - or we are facing the end-times. Think of the economic impact of the deaths of one seventh of the population. Someone explain to me what Im missing in this information?
Posted on: Fri, 03 Oct 2014 02:23:28 +0000
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