de WB0NSQ AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...FAR NW MO...FAR SE NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 012254Z - 020100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SOME STRENGTHENING EXPECTED. PRIMARY SVR THREAT IS SVR HAIL. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW. DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS NE KS. IMPETUS FOR THIS INITIATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT MAY BE THE RESULT WAA ALONG A REMANENT DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER KG. SHEAR IS ALSO FAVORABLE WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT. CURRENT REFLECTIVITY CHARACTER OF THE STORMS SUGGESTS THEY ARE ELEVATED BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SURFACE-BASED SHORTLY. ..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 10/01/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 39209807 39479780 39929708 40089659 40259578 40259520 40099482 39799466 39329475 38869529 38659645 38549803 39209807
Posted on: Wed, 01 Oct 2014 22:54:54 +0000