roduct: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2013 Sep 04 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 04-Sep 06 2013 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 04-Sep 06 2013 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep 06 00-03UT 2 3 3 03-06UT 1 3 2 06-09UT 1 2 2 09-12UT 2 1 2 12-15UT 1 1 2 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 04-Sep 06 2013 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep 06 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 04-Sep 06 2013 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep 06 R1-R2 10% 10% 10% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Posted on: Wed, 04 Sep 2013 14:23:48 +0000
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