1.30 Neptune Novice’s Hurdle Although the Neptune is run over five furlongs further, it’s actually proven to be a far better guide to the following season’s Champion Hurdle than the Supreme despite the fact that the opening race is run over the same course and distance as the Tuesday showpiece. Similar to the Arkle, this is normally won by a fancied horse that’s not necessarily the favourite. Faugheen (11/4) is yet another novice hurdle favourite for the powerful Walsh/Mullins/Ricci combination. Unbeaten in five starts including bumpers & point to points, this horse has been described as a ‘machine’ by many, with nothing having managed to get him off the bridle yet. That’s probably because he’s been running against nothing though, and although he may be the superstar some believe him to be, he still has to prove it. You wouldn’t think so judging by his current price. Hasn’t been totally convincing with his jumping either and I’m not a big fan of horses stepping back down from three miles to contest this race. It’s also been more than two months since his last run with rumours going around that the trainer wasn’t entirely happy with him. He may well win but I wouldn’t touch him at the price. Red Sherlock (5/1) is another unbeaten horse in the line-up. This one’s run six times under rules culminating with a Grade 2 win at Cheltenham last time out, where he held off a stable mate of the favourite. That was on heavy ground though, and may have been more of a staying test than this will prove to be. The New One got beaten in that race last year before winning here, while the winner went on to score in the Albert Bartlett. That race may be more suitable for Red Sherlock too, as his rules form so far seems to indicate that stamina rather than speed is his forte. May get tapped for toe if he turns up here. Royal Boy (7/1) hasn’t got the right profile for your standard winner of this race. He’s a 7yo second season novice who even had a go at chasing this season before reverting back to the smaller obstacles. Won the Grade 1 Tolworth at the second attempt (3rd last year) when holding off Josses Hill, with the pair a long way clear of the third. You may expect improvement from a younger contender, but it’s less likely from a horse of his age and experience. I don’t think he’ll be competitive here. Not for me. Rathvinden (8/1) ran in the January Grade 2 at Warwick that’s been a good trial of late, but fell too far from home to predict how he would have fared. He turned up at Cheltenham next, where he lost out in the closing stages to Red Sherlock on heavy ground. Won two bumpers and a maiden hurdle very easily in Ireland before he made any of his English excursions, but looks a bit short in the betting based on what he’s actually achieved. May be dangerous to write off though, as the stable’s lesser lights have outperformed the first string on a few occasions in the recent past. Briar Hill (8/1) should be running here in my opinion, but looks more likely to go for the Albert Bartlett over three miles. He won the bumper at last year’s festival by seven lengths and has followed that up this season by winning a maiden and a couple of graded races over hurdles. Apparently he doesn’t show a lot at home, saving his best work for the track and although he’s been unimpressive in his wins this year he’s already proven that he thrives on festival conditions. Would be a massive player if he did run here but unfortunately that doesn’t seem likely to happen. Lieutenant Colonel (14/1) won a Fairyhouse maiden hurdle pretty easily in January, but was beaten either side of that both of Willie Mullins most fancied Supreme contenders. That would suggest he needs to progress a fair bit to be involved here, but this looks a weaker contest than the two mile race this season. Considering all of his starts so far have been over the minimum trip, the step up to 2m5f may be the key to finding the necessary improvement. Connections are always to be respected at Cheltenham and he may be decent each way value in a relatively poor renewal. Captain Cutter (14/1) won a hot bumper on his debut at Ascot last season and has progressed nicely since then, adding the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle over Christmas to his two previous hurdle wins. The winner of the Newbury race has never won this though, probably because you want a dour stayer there while a speedier horse with a turn of foot tends to win this one. It also looked a pretty weak race for the level at the time, and that’s proven to be the case judging by the subsequent performances of the beaten horses. Would probably hold a better chance in the Albert Bartlett which looks his more likely target judging by the current exchange prices. Ballyalton (16/1) hadn’t done an awful lot wrong until his most recent start, where he was only fourth on New Year’s Day. He hasn’t run since then though, which is hardly a positive and the collateral form of all his wins before that leaves him a lot to find with a few of his likely opponents here anyway. He’s also a seven year old and that generation have a very poor record in this race. Deputy Dan (16/1) won the Warwick Grade 2 in January when Rathvinden fell behind him, but his previous form is a little uninspiring for a potential winner of this race. He won a maiden hurdle by a long way at Chepstow, but had been beaten twice before that in poor races which should worry any potential backers. I’d be very surprised if he was good enough to figure. Sure Reef (20/1) has the same connections as Briar Hill and if that one does head to the Albert Bartlett, this horse could prove a more than able substitute. He fell on his hurdling debut, before winning a weak looking maiden hurdle over the Christmas period. However, he stepped up on that performance to win the same Leopardstown Grade 2 that Nicanor took en route to taking down Denman at the 2006 festival next time out. Still pretty unexposed and could be better than people think. Looks a value price. I’m really struggling to get excited about this race. I keep hearing that Faugheen is the next Pegasus, but there were similar comments being applied to Pont Alexandre & Boston Bob in the last two years and they both got beaten. I have to swerve him as he’s not a value bet based on what he’s actually achieved. That doesn’t mean he won’t win though as the rest look a pretty mediocre bunch, and I seriously doubt we’ll have a future Champion Hurdle prospect coming out of this race. For betting purposes, I’ll be interested in whichever Wylie horse turns up and at the moment that looks like being Sure Reef.
Posted on: Sun, 09 Mar 2014 16:33:37 +0000
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