1) There are 3 hotly contested Congressional races being decided tomorrow (Amash vs. Ellis, McMillin vs. Bishop, and Bentivolio vs. Trott) and each race highlights the internal division within the Republican party. Every Republican has a horse in the race and I think turnout in these districts will be higher than 2010 and 2012, a lot higher. 2) I think Amash, McMillin, and to a much lesser degree Bentivilio will do considerably better than what the establishment polls suggest for the simple fact that establishment polls favor establishment candidates. They fail to predict turnout among anti-establishment voters and they under predict the age gap that tends to trend against the establishment candidates because these polls rely so heavily on land line phones and they tend to only count voters who voted last time around when the contest was not heavily contested. I think Amash will win easily, Bentivolio will lose, and Tom McMillin will beat Mike Bishop, although that one will be VERY close. crainsdetroit/article/20140803/NEWS01/140809980/record-low-turnout-feared-in-michigan-primary-election#
Posted on: Mon, 04 Aug 2014 15:43:57 +0000
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