100 YEARS AFTER WORLD WAR 1 BROKE OUT -------------------------------------------------------------------- Today exactly 100yrs ago , World War 1 broke out . It was triggered by the assassination of Ferdinand , the crown prince of Austria on 28th June that year , but there were deeper economic & political reasons . the 100 yrs since the battle of Waterloo had not been entirely free of disaster -- Europe was convulsed by revolutions in 1830s and in1848 , France had republics overthrown and emperors captured power time and again , there had been a horrific civil war in America , some regional scraps in Asia , the Franco-Prussian war and the occasional colonial calamity . But globalization and new technology -- the telephone , steamship , the train-- had knitted the world together . The Great Illusion which laid out the argument that Europes economies were so integrated that war would be futile . Yet , within a year the world was embroiled in a most horrific war, which cost 9 million lives . FROM BEING A FRIEND OF FREEDOM , TECHNOLOGY BECAME AN AGENT OF BRUUTALITY . The driving force behind the catastrophe that befell the world a century was Germany . Too many people , in London , Paris and elsewhere believed that because Britain and Germany were each others biggest trading partners after America and there was no economic logic behind the conflict and war would not happen. As John Maynard Keynes put it , The projects and politics of militarism and imperialism , of racial and cultural rivalries , of monopolies, restrictions and exclusion , which were to play the serpent to the paradise , were little more than amusements of the Londoners daily news paper . Yet he was proved wrong ! Humanity can learn from its mistakes . THE EXPLOSIVE POWER OF A MODERN CONFLAGRATION : THE THREAT OF A NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST IS A POWERFUL BRAKE ON THE RECKLESS ESCALATION that dispatched a generation of young men into the trenches a century ago . YET THE PARALLELS REMAIN TROUBLING ! . The United States is Britain of that time , the superpower on the wane , unable to guaranty global security . Its main trading partner , CHINA , plays the part of Germany of that time , a new economic power bristling with national indignation and building its armed forces rapidly . Involved in skirmishes in South China Sea and the islands around , constantly troubling Japan , Vietnam and others , encircling India ( String of pearls ) and building economic colonies all over. Modern Japan is France of that time , an ally of the retreating hegemon and declining regional power . Parallels are not exact -- CHINA LIKELY TO LACK KAISERS TERRITORIAL AMBITIONS AND AMERICAS DEFENCE BUDGET IS FAR MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN IMPERIAL BRITAINS . Again , the most striking similarity , between 1914 and 2014 is COMPLACENCY. Business people are like business people then , politicians are playing with nationalism as they did 100 yrs ago. CHINAS LEADERS WHIP UP JAPANOPHOBIA.. There are fears that America appeasing China may play CHAMBERLAINS CAPITULATION AT MUNICH before World War2 ( The real cause of 2nd World War however lied in several clauses of Versailles Treaty which was destine to fail for certain . And the Great Depression contributed to the economic reason for another world War ) In several other parts of the globe the situation is much more dangerous. Just as the 2nd Great War was followed by cold war , Cuban missile crisis , collapse of the Soviet and communism as a whole ( leading to unipolar world ) -- there is now disquiet in Maghreb ( N-W Africa), Egypt & whole of Middle-East , everlasting Israel -Palestine clashes , Syria , Iraq , Iran , Russia interfering in Ukraine in czarist style --- the situation is like a cauldron boiling. Vladimir Putin has been content to watch Syria rip itself apart . And European Union is looking more fractious and riven by incipient nationalism. A STRONG INDIA COULD HAVE PLAYED A ROLE OF GLOBAL PEACEKEEPRR ( Since India nurtures no territorial ambition ) , but that is far from a .possibility . No body knows what will happen when North Korea implodes . Fundamentalist Jehadis have complicated the situation in Af-Pak region and many other parts of the world . TWO PRECAUTIONS: America & China need to plan ahead. A code of maritime conduct is necessary for the area where China is playing dangerous chicken neck game around its littoral with its neighbors The pressure of world opinion must be made to be felt by China . 2nd precaution is a more active role by America . They have forged an interim nuclear agreement with Iran but has pulled back in the Middle East . America must also do enough to bring the emerging giants -- India , Indonesia, Brazil and above all China into the global system . In fact , America MUST BEHAVE LIKE A LEADER . LETS BELIEVE , MADNESS , WHETHER MOTIVATED BY RACE , RELIGION OR TRIBE , USUALLY GIVES GROUND TO RATIONAL SELF-INTEREST .
Posted on: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 05:56:40 +0000
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