130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low pressure system east of the Leeward islands found SFMR surface winds of tropical storm force, and based on this information the low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gonzalo. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/09 kt. Due to a strong ridge to the north of Gonzalo, the cyclone is expected to move generally westward at around 10 kt for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest in the 36-72 hour time frame. After that time, a deep-layer trough moving off of the U.S. east coast is expected to erode the ridge, causing Gonzalo to move slowly northwestward to northward. The NHC track forecast closely follows the consensus model TVCN. The small size of Gonzalo, combined with low shear conditions less than 10 kt and SSTs of at least 29C, argue for at least steady strengthening throughout the forecast period. There will likely be occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air that may briefly slow the intensification process, but those occurrences should generally be short-lived. The intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS intensity model. NOTE: Data from the reconnaissance aircraft has been received by the NHC, but telecommunications problems are preventing the dissemination of these data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1730Z 16.4N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 16.4N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 17.2N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 18.2N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 20.5N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 22.0N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 24.0N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart MC
Posted on: Sun, 12 Oct 2014 17:55:35 +0000
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