18z GFS ensembles suggest the favorable EPO block in western Alaska persists well into the 11-15 day period. 65% of ensemble members in both 6-10 and 11-15 timeframes supportive of a pattern conducive to at least a modified arctic blast into the PNW...backdoor favored in 6-10 but a blast out of BC possible thereafter. Could be major but may not be...theres still plenty of time to sort that out. Best looking ensembles thus far IMO for cold in the PNW with nice SE US ridge on most members. Even at hour 360 (day 15), 45% of the ensemble members still chugging along with an incredibly strong EPO block and a textbook arctic blast pattern at 500 mb.
Posted on: Fri, 26 Dec 2014 01:01:17 +0000
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