200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION. IN FACT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS STILL LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...LITTLE MOTION OR PERHAPS A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 25.5N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 26.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 26.5N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA MC
Posted on: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 08:34:10 +0000
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