2014 Mar 11 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was moderate for the past 24 hours. Region 1996 (N13W57, Dac/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, an M3 flare at 11/0350 UTC. It also produced an M1/Sf flare at 10/2300 UTC, as well as several C-class flares throughout the period. This region maintained mixed polarities in the leader spots and exhibited growth in the intermediate spots. Region 2002 (S17E31, Dac/beta-gamma-delta) continued to exhibit growth in its intermediate spots, new growth in the trailer spots, as well as growth and consolidation in the leader spots. It continues to display a delta magnetic configuration in the intermediate spot area and exhibit overall areal growth. It was also responsible for an M-class flare, an M1 at 10/1528 UTC, as well as a few low-level C-class and subflares. Region 2003 (N06W17, Dao/beta), while relatively quiet, showed signs of development in its leader spots as well as overall areal growth. The remaining numbered sunspot regions were stable and fairly inactive. Solar x-ray background levels have risen to mid C-level as a result of sustained brightening on the suns southwest limb. This is likely associated with an eruptive prominence on the limb (EPL), located near S12W90. There were no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections observed in satellite imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3 Strong) during the forecast period (11-13 Mar). Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at normal levels during the forecast period (11-13 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is also expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (11-13 Mar). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Following the onset then gradual weakening of a weak, negative-polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS), solar wind parameters returned to nominal background conditions. Solar wind speed began the period near 340 km/s, but began a slow but steady decline to end the period right around the 300 km/s mark. Total IMF (Bt) remained steady between 3 nT and 5 nT, while Bz varied between +/-4 nT. The Phi angle held a mostly positive (away) orientation through the majority of the period before slowly oscillating to a slightly negative (towards) solar sector by the end of the period. .Forecast... Solar wind speed is expected to remain at background conditions for the duration of the forecast period (11-13 Mar). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to persist through day one (11 Mar) as CH HSS effects continue to wane. Days two and three (12-13 Mar) are expected to see a return to mostly quiet conditions.
Posted on: Tue, 11 Mar 2014 15:35:21 +0000
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