2015 ARITHMETIC PERMUTATION: The scenarios are obvious and they all point to a President in his decline and fall: President Goodluck Jonathan is faced with bad luck in all directions. Let us look at the arithmetic.The arithmetic starting from the APC governors, the President should not expect a support from their fourteen states. Then come the six (6) states of Bauchi, Gombe, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi and Kaduna in which the President will also lose their majority votes though the governors are yet to abandon him. He lost them in 2011, some woefully. This brings the number of states against the President to a staggering figure of twenty-two. Taraba state is uncertain, the votes being likely to be shared equally between the APC candidate and the President. That leaves the President with the majority of the votes of only Benue and Plateau States in the North for obvious reasons die hard loyalists in the persons of Governors Suswam and Jonah Jang, plus, of course, the majority votes in the southeast, South-South and, possibly, non-APC states of Ondo and neighboring Ekiti in the southwest which is very dicey. Even here, the states and zones are not big enough on the voters register to make any significant impact, with some having as low as 472,00 votes (Bayelsa) when compared to Lagos (6. 1million) and Kano (5million) votes even with all the abracadabra of INEC, both of which are not supporting the President. I will come to another possibility where the opposition can win the overwhelming majority votes in all states of southwest without exception. But before then, let us see what the above arithmetic means in terms of voter-opportunity for the President – a complete bad luck: 22.9million against 45.7million or one-third against two thirds! I have presented below the total number of voters in each state belonging to the President and the opposition APC. Jonathan States 1.Bayelsa State-472,389, 2.Ekiti State- 750,753, 3.Ebonyi State-876,249 4.CrossRiver State-1,018,550, 5.Enugu State-1,301,185, 6.Benue State-1,415,162 7.Abia State- 1,481,191, 8.Ondo State-1,558,975, 9.Imo State- 1,611,715, 10.AkwaIbom State-1,714,781, 11.Anambra State-1,758,220, 12.Delta State- 1,900,055 13.Plateau State-1,983,453, 14.Rivers State-2,419,057, 16.Taraba State-1,308,106 TOTAL =21,569,841 APC Candidate States 1.Fct- 886,323, 2.Kwara State-1,115,665, 3.Yobe State- 1,182,230, 4.Kogi State- 1,215,405, 5.Nasarawa State-1,224,206, 6.Gombe State-1,266,993, 7.Osun State- 1,293,967, 8.Kebbi State-1,603,468, 9.Adamawa State-1,714,860, 10.Niger State-1,721,478, 11.Zamfara State-1,746,024, 12.Bauchi State-1,835,562 13.Jigawa State-1,852,698, 14.Sokoto State-2,065,508, 15.Oyo State-2,577,490, 16.Borno State-2,730,368, 17.Katsina State-2,931,668, 18.Kaduna State-3,565,762, 19.Kano State- 5,135,415, 20.Lagos State-6,247,845, 21.Ogun State-1,869,326, 22.15.Edo State- 1,412,225, TOTAL =47,194,486 Depending on who the APC fields as its presidential candidate, the President may not even get the votes of Ekiti and Ondo states. That makes his chances bleaker: 20.6million against 48million votes. This picture is a complete bad luck for the President in two ways, pick a winning candidate, mobilise its voters and fight fiercely to protect the votes, then it is certain to defeat the President at the polls in 2015, hands down from the first ballot without any run off. There is simply no way the President can bridge the gap between 14 states that he would have and the 22, plus the FCT, against him. I cannot see how he can leap from a majority of approximately 22million votes to position himself above the majority of 47.2 million votes. What may make the depiction even darker is the possibility that once the ship of the President starts sinking, the remaining governors may abandon it and he may not be sure of anything anymore.
Posted on: Wed, 03 Dec 2014 16:22:38 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015