2041 Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C At the Copenhagen Summit in 2009, a rise of 2°C was agreed as the maximum safe limit for global warming. In the early 2040s, this danger point is passed.* This occurs despite a plunge in crude oil production – CO2 emissions from past decades are yet to have their full effect on the climate system,* while other hydrocarbons (such as coal and unconventional oil) saw increased use in the years following peak oil. Although a transition to clean energy is now being achieved, global warming remains a deadly threat to civilisation. From this point onwards, any further increase in temperature will lead to runaway positive feedbacks, exceeding mans ability to control them. It should be noted that 2°C is merely the average global increase. In some regions – such as the poles – the rise has been substantially greater already. The Arctic is now completely free of ice for several weeks a year,* while Greenland has reached a tipping point of irreversible melting. In America, the arid conditions have continued to get worse. They are now spreading into the Southeastern states, where soybean production has been slashed by half, and a similar yield decrease has occurred for soyghum.* Meanwhile, invasive species of insects are migrating to new latitudes, driven by warmer temperatures. Bark beetles, for example, are moving north and killing off huge areas of forest that provide food to grizzly bears and other fauna. In Europe, the Alps are becoming largely devoid of snow, for the first time in millions of years.* Having served a role as the water towers of Europe, this is having a substantial impact on water supplies. Major rivers such as the Rhine, Rhone and Danube have until now relied on snow and glacial melt from these mountains. Switzerland is being especially hard hit, with much of its electricity based on hydroelectric power. In addition, record heatwaves are causing gigantic wildfires, the likes of which have never been experienced before. The Mediterranean has lost a fifth of its rainfall and now has an additional six weeks of heatwave conditions each year. At the foot of the Alps, rockfalls triggered by melting permafrost have caused widespread destruction to villages and towns. Tourism has been decimated, with skiing impossible in many areas. In South America, a similar situation has occurred. Melting glaciers in the Andes have caused water shortages for tens of millions of people.* Refugee movements are now a major issue for the region. In Columbia, there has been a marked decline in coffee production - one of the countrys main exports - accounting for a significant percentage of world harvests.* In Asia too, there is a water crisis. Pakistans major rivers - the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab - are delivering less than half of their historic supply. The nuclear-armed country is now at war with neighbouring India, following conflicts over resources.* Monsoon rainfalls have become increasingly unpredictable in the region, while sea level rises are causing further devastation to Bangladesh, which has yet to recover from the disasters of the 2020s. Developing regions are disproportionately affected by climate change, and Africa is the worst-hit location of all. Biblical-scale droughts are becoming the norm here, with most of the continent seeing catastrophic declines in agricultural yields. In Mali, three-quarters of the population is starving.* In the Western Pacific, Tuvalu is now sharing the same fate as the Maldives: most of the island nation has been washed off the face of the Earth, leaving its people effectively homeless.*
Posted on: Wed, 30 Oct 2013 19:52:22 +0000
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