278 days until Presidential elections but whose counting? Although all the news surrounding Argentina is not exactly positive, there is hope for a brighter future with the upcoming elections. There will be change no matter who wins. Below is an article reposted from Javier Kulesz supporting the hope for change. In Argentina, the headlines are all about the death of the prosecutor who accused the president of ordering impunity for the Iranian suspects involved in the bombing of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires in 1994. This story is being widely covered by the international media so we won’t write about it here. It’s quite premature to say anything about what to expect but ramifications could be significant. The country appears to be in a state of shock. Social patience towards this administration may have started to run thin (yesterday there were well attended demonstrations in various parts of the country). In our view, the government’s response, especially that of Cristina, is doing nothing to calm anxieties. If anything, they are fuelling suspicion that members of her administration were involved in this death one way or another. All this being said, we would work on the assumption that these developments won’t affect markets for now. Judging by recent price action, it was becoming increasingly more evident that investors have started to look beyond what Cristina might or might not do before the end of her term, pricing in the presumably more centrist/ rational policy stance the incoming administration will bring about. We doubt these tragic events will change this central view. If anything, they have the potential of reinforcing it by altering political dynamics in more market-friendly ways. These events could boost the prospect of market favourite Mauricio Macri and to a lesser extent Sergio Massa, at the expense of the official candidates. LatAm Sovereign Desk Analysts: Javier Kulesz
Posted on: Tue, 20 Jan 2015 16:23:29 +0000