3.20 World Hurdle The feature race on day three is the Championship Race for staying hurdlers. Four time champion Big Bucks returns after missing last season’s race due to injury. Annie Power (7/4) has been the most talked about horse in the lead up to this year’s festival. Due to her versatility and unbeaten record it’s been hotly debated that she should be running in the Champion instead, but considering Willie Mullins has the defending champ in that race this is the one they’ve opted to go for. She’s done all that’s been asked of her so far in her career looking more like a stayer than a speed horse in the process, and her breeding also suggests that three miles shouldn’t be a problem. She’s still yet to prove it on the track though, and that doesn’t appear to have been factored into her price. She’ll probably win but I can’t back her at 7/4 for that reason. Big Bucks (11/4) suffered his first defeat in more than five years when he went down in third to Knockara Beau at Cheltenham in January. Maybe he can be forgiven considering that he hadn’t run for more than 400 days, and he’s expected to improve massively by connections. He’s going to have to though, as that was an awful race and how much better he can come on for the run at the age of 11 I’m not sure. Even an unfit Big Bucks would have won that race on the bridle in the past, so I was disappointed he got beaten. No disrespect to Sam Twiston-Davies either, but he’s not Ruby Walsh and having the master on the back of your selection can be hugely important around Cheltenham. So it’s not ideal for Big Bucks fans that he’s riding his main rival in the betting. I can’t have the old champion this time around and if he stays short enough, I might lay him win & place as I’m of the opinion that the Cleeve Hurdle form is garbage. At Fishers Cross (7/1) was a good winner of the Albert Bartlett last year, but has done absolutely nothing since then to justify holding a prominent position in this market. His jumping is still very sketchy and he’s been losing races he should be winning if he’s expected to be a credible challenger here. As I already mentioned I don’t rate the form of the Cleeve Hurdle and can’t have anything that ran in that race. He was second. Possibly the worst value horse in the race. More Of That (10/1) is a very unexposed candidate from the Jonjo O’Neill yard. He’s another who’s yet to prove himself over the three mile trip, but is bred to stay and gives that firm impression in his races where he always appears to be doing his best work at the finish. He’s very inexperienced though, having only had the four starts and it normally takes a more battle hardened horse to win this. However, I definitely see him as a player and can’t believe Tony McCoy opted to ride At Fishers Cross ahead of him. Dangerous to write off. Rule The World (10/1) was second to The New One in the Neptune last year and that one now heads the market for the Champion Hurdle, proving what a task he was faced with that day. He suffered a pelvic injury at the Punchestown Festival in April, before returning at Naas in October to record an easy win over 2m4f. His two subsequent runs were in messy small field Grade 1’s that turned into sprints rather than stamina tests, which definitely wouldn’t have suited. He warmed up for this since then with another easy victory at Naas and comes here looking to hold a very good chance. His trainer has a great record of getting his runners to peak at Cheltenham and he looks an outstanding each way bet as it’s very difficult to see three horses (if any) finishing in front of him. Zarkandar (12/1) has been beaten twice this season by Annie Power. The further they went, the further she beat him and it’s very hard to see any reason why he should turn that form around. He may run into a place but I’d still prefer a few others ahead of him. Salubrious (20/1) is yet another from the Paul Nicholls stable. The old saying about Derby winners comes to mind. The fact that he is running so many doesn’t suggest they’re that confident about Big Bucks. Anyway this horse won the Martin Pipe conditional race off a mark of 141 at last year’s festival, so needs to have massively improved to figure here. Both More Of That & Reve De Sivola have beaten him comprehensively on his last two starts so it looks unlikely he’ll be competitive. Celestial Halo (20/1) is the final Ditcheat representative. He was runner-up in this last year at a massive price, but is very much the second string of Andy Stewart’s two runners here behind Big Bucks. He’s also been on the go a long, long time having run on the flat and been in training since 2006. He’s now a 10yo, whose generation I don’t think have ever won the race and this renewal looks quite a bit better than last year’s version. I’d be pretty surprised if he got involved. Reve De Sivola (25/1) had his chance last year in a weaker renewal on softer ground and he couldn’t even place. The ground will be better this year and the opposition is far stronger. If this took place in heavy ground at Ascot he might have a chance. It doesn’t though. Boston Bob (25/1) was a long last in the aforementioned Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham. I can’t have anything that ran in that race winning here so that rules him out in my opinion. He would have won last year’s RSA Chase only for falling at the last and only appears to be back over hurdles because of a lack of confidence over the larger obstacles. He won a bad race at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve before putting up that previously mentioned woeful performance in January. I heard they made excuses due to the ground, but he’s been winning in Ireland on heavy for the past two seasons, so I don’t buy that. When he ran here in the Albert Bartlett two years ago, he went off 11/10 and was badly outpaced before staying on into second. This is over the same C&D but with a much higher quality field. I don’t think he’ll be mapped. I think Rule The World is an excellent each-way bet here. There are major doubts about everything ahead of him in the market and he looks certain to run a huge race. Annie Power is obviously the one to beat, but she’s a very short price considering she has her stamina to prove. Outside of her I’m struggling to find one to beat the selection, so he looks massive value at 10/1.
Posted on: Mon, 10 Mar 2014 17:06:30 +0000
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