5+1/Iran Nuclear Agreement- Short-term victory for US and Israel: If Iran abides by the agreement completely, its nuclear ambitions are delayed couple of years. If it doesnt abide, at least, the United States has bought time for more than 6 months without any cost. Total victory for President Obama: He keeps Middle Eastern allies relatively happy, and gets credit for his only successful foreign policy so far. In worst-case scenario, a preemptive war against Iran will be the next presidents concern. Short-term economic gain for Iranian people: Due to some limited sanction relief, Iran currencys exchange rate boosts, probably leading to undoing stagflation - at least, for a while. (Socially/Politically? Not improving, projected to get just worse) Complete loss for Iran: Destroying the enriched Uranium supply means losing a hundreds-of-billion$ investment forever. (Needless to mention high cost of temporary deactivation of some nuclear facilities). Also, the nuclear programs secrecy will be undermined significantly. And many more ... But, wait a minute ... Too good to be true? Iranian policymakers definitely know what a major defeat this nuclear deal is. Do they accept the defeat permanently? Or, are they considering this deal just as a modern-day Treaty of Hudaybiyyah? A positive answer to the former seems implausible considering the mind-set of Irans top officials. If the latter is the case, then everyone pays a very high price, Iranian people the most. As Sec. Kerry once said, no deal is better than a bad deal. Anyway, its still too soon to draw into a conclusion at the moment. Id rather wait couple of months to make any predictions, though Im not very optimistic: History teaches us that whenever mobs are cheering, something very bad is going to happen afterwards.
Posted on: Mon, 25 Nov 2013 07:14:45 +0000
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