9/30/13 Market Summary Corn In the overnight session December corn finished 2 higher, and then with the opening of the day session it continued to climb and peaked out 8 higher just in front of 10 AM central time. From there until the USDA report it drifted back to unchanged, and once the report was released it came under steady pressure for the rest of the session and closed down 12 and within a couple cents of the lows. Stocks report held a bit of a surprise as USDA finalized last year’s carryout (this year’s carryin) at 824 million which was 136 million more than the average guess and 163 million more than Sept 12 S&D report had pegged in the balance sheet. This bump in supplies is most likely the result of a significant reduction in summer feed demand. Crop progress report showed a nice bump from 7% last week to 12% harvested this week, and a sizeable jump in maturity levels from 40% LW to 63% TW. Yield reports continue to flow in on a regular basis and most are better than expected, although there a few spots a bit disappointed. Crop still wet in many areas, but this should still be a big week overall if the forecast holds true. Beans Soybeans finishing the day with November futures down 37 cents and closing at $12.82 ¾’s. Soybeans were weak prior to the report coming out, as an open harvest for the most part allowed producers to get rolling east to west. So far, and it’s early, yields feel as expected, if not a little better. Every once in a while a yield is reported that is in the mid-60’s despite only having an inch of rain over the past 2 months. Astonishing results under those conditions!! At 11am Central time, the USDA Stocks report was released, and, the avg. estimate was 126 mbu..it came in at 141 mbu. They also adjusted last year’s soybean crop to 3.034 bbu from 3.015 bbu. These sort of numbers resulted in the a bearish slide the rest of the session. Harvest progress was released after the market close, and it came in at 11%, compared to 3% LW, 39% LY and 20% avg. The market was looking for 10% -15% harvested. Crop Conditions, although almost a moot point at this juncture, showed that the crop improved this past week to 53% vs 50% LW, and 35% LY. We are now looking toward the Oct. 11th production report Wheat Eventful trading day for the wheat players to end the month as focus was on the USDA Stocks and Small Grains Summary report. Once the dust settled, KC futures were 5-7 cents higher and Mnpls/Chicago closed 3-4 lower. The government forecasted a smaller-than-expected Sept 1 stocks # of 1.855 bbu, which pending some final minor adjustments to the other demand sectors, would indicate a summer quarter feed usage of ~440 mbu, which would establish a record total for the June-August time frame. Bulk of the stocks surprise was in off-farm stocks which were down 225 mbu from LY while on-farm totals only lagged last year by 26 mbu. The HRW production total was lowered by 47 mbu while the SRW crop was bumped 23 mbu higher. Spring wheat crop was 14 mbu higher as a big yield increase in ND offset the ½ million acre reduction in harvested acres. Stats Canada report set to be released on Friday AM and trade already preparing for another hike in production. Global trade watching the dry conditions in Argentina and the cool/wet conditions in Black Sea area as possible issues. Russia and Ukraine are expected to see a slightly drier pattern develop later this week allowing for some planting activity, though optimal time window is closing. Bulk of the US HRW region received beneficial moisture allowing for prime planting conditions this week. USDA estimating 39% of the winter wheat crop is planted, in line with the average.
Posted on: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 22:09:59 +0000