9th August 1914 WILL THE WAR LAST LONG? BECAUSE THE WAR is mightier in other ways than the Revolutionary and Napoleonic conflicts, it is sometimes thought that it may be as long protracted, or, at least, may last for a year or two. We believe this is a delusion. There is, of course, one condition. The more feebly struggles of this kind are conducted, the longer they drag out. In this sense, weakness in making war is one of the worst curses that can fall upon the world, and that is why the younger Pitt may be as much reproached in some ways for the lack of his father’s fighting genius as praised for his immortal fortitude. We are now acting at once with a vigour by land and sea that we have not shown at the outset of any struggle since Chatham breathed instant energy into both services. A kernel of sound truth is often found in the shell of a hard saying. Mild men are often a little perplexed by the maxim that “the essence of war is violence, and moderation in war is imbecility”. That, however, is the truth which has to be faced. By acting upon it we shall take the most certain way of shortening the war. We must bring every conceivable means we can use, naval, military, financial, diplomatic. If Germany can be overcome during the next few weeks in France and Belgium, or even fought to a standstill on that side, while the Russians are rolling towards her frontier on the other side, that would be the straightest way of ensuring the early deliverance of mankind. If France and her allies suffered initial reverses these would have to be redressed and the struggle would be more extended. But our reasons for thinking that six months and perhaps a shorter period should see the end of it are chiefly economic. The cost is stupendous now, and for Germany we believe will soon be found insupportable. A couple of million men at least have got to be fed and supplied in every way. In German, more than in any other country, the working of the railways is diverted to military traffic. The bulk of the export trade is stopped altogether. Imports of raw materials and food have ceased or are severely reduced. All ocean shipping is suspended. The sufferings of the whole working population will be worse than in any other country, Austria not excepted — far worse than in agricultural Russia, or in France for whom the British Navy keeps the seas open. It is an utterly different Germany from that of 1870, and the trials to which it seems condemned are frightful. There is hardly anything, on the other hand, with which Germany supplies us that we cannot make ourselves or buy elsewhere, while the losses of her large purchases of our goods will be made up to a great extent, and perhaps wholly, by our increased exports to the two neighbouring countries with which we are allied and to neutral markets near and far. It is almost certain, if the early stages of the war do not pursue a course very favourable to German arms, that this situation will not be endured by the German people, so grievously misled by its bureaucratic rulers. If German victories at the outset had the inevitable effect of prolonging the struggle, the Kaiser’s subjects — certain whatever else happens to claim in future a fuller control of their own destinies — would soon perceive that they can gain no advantage proportionate to the prodigious sacrifices required of them. These are amongst our reasons for believing that the length of this war will in no case be in proportion to its magnitude.
Posted on: Mon, 25 Aug 2014 08:31:36 +0000
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