A COMMENTARY ON NIFTY AND THE LEVELS FOR 21ST OCTOBER 2014. BEATdSTREET Leave a reply A COMMENTARY ON NIFTY AND THE LEVELS FOR 21ST OCTOBER 2014. BEATdSTREET TUESDAY MORNING MOVES: DOW FUTURES CLOSED OUT THE DAY AT 16399.67. NOW TRADING AT 16394 IN THE FUTURES MARKET FTSE FUTURES CLOSED OUT THE DAY AT 6267.07. NOW TRADING AT 6284 IN THE FUTURES MARKET DAX FUTURES CLOSED OUT THE DAY AT 8717.76. NOW TRADING AT 8761 IN THE FUTURES MARKET UP BY 22 POINTS HANGSENG +117 OR 0.53% UP NIKKEI 15043 DOWN -0.43% SGX NIFTY 7924 UP 27 POINTS FROM INDIAN SESSION CLOSE ON MONDAY Nifty gets a booster shot in the form of reforms. Diesel deregulated. ONGC surges. Nifty moved away from the daily lower band on Monday and the rally we were looking at is on. The obvious targets on the daily chart are the 50 EMA at 7878.95 and the daily middle band at 7941. On the stocks specific front, ONGC rallied 5.4 percent on gas price hike while oil marketing companies HPCL, BPCL and IOC surged 4-7 percent on diesel deregulation. UltraTech Cement climbed 5.5 percent following higher-than-expected earnings in July-September quarter. Axis Bank surged 4 percent post second quarter earnings met street expectations. Shares of Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, Larsen and Toubro, HDFC, SBI, Hindalco Industries, Maruti Suzuki, Hero Motocorp, Sesa Sterlite and Coal India gained 2-5 percent. However, Infosys, ITC, Wipro and TCS underperformed, falling 0.5-1.7 percent. Jindal Steel & Power plunged over 7 percent as sources said CBI has registered a fresh case of alleged cheating and corruption against the company, in the coal blocks allocation probe. We mentioned the possibility that this rally should clear the 7890-7919 area on Monday morning, and we have seen a reversal there. I’m a bit concerned about that, as that was a reversal at the 50 EMA, and a possible stalling of the upside. However, the close today is marginally above the 50EMA and that is a good sign. There is still the 7941 area, but on a decent break above 7951 there may be an argument for a target in the 8006 area. Supporting the rally going further up on Nifty are the double clone closes on Dow Jones. We may see some more retracement from Monday’s high this morning, but until we see strong evidence to the contrary we’ll be looking for that 7941 target after that. We’ll be keeping an eye on these possible patterns and it should be easier to assess those when the low today is made and we may at that stage then have enough data points to identify the rally patterns. Nifty has good support at 7683 and if that is taken out on a closing basis we are definitely looking to revisit 7541 and maybe even 7422. The tide will have turned only when we close above 7970 now. Until then one should go with the trend and take each day on its own merit. Internationally, Dow closed out almost flat at 16399 thereby making it a weekly close and a daily close double bottom for now and both the closes are above the crucial 16368. Now, Dow’s test of character comes at 16606-16926-17110-17275 and 17710. A close above 16926 will reverse the immediate bearishness that we witnessed. Gold has also seen a decent bounce trading at $1245 after the interim low of $1183. Now, the hurdle comes at 1298 and support at 1223. However, expect sideways movement for now in India, since the gold for the expected DhanTeras buying has already been stocked up at lower levels. Crude made a low of $81.64 and retraced sharply and now trades at $82.71 as at 0745 Hours IST. The local currency has weakened from the close of 61.12 to now trade at 61.26 as at 0750 Hours in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market. If we break 62 on the USDINR pair then the logical target stands at 63.96. This would perhaps correlate to 7540-7422 on the Nifty. Going forward, the range for the day is 7830-7941 and the week is 7650-8015. Going forward the band of 7890-7905-7920-7963-7992-8038-8110-8160-8180-8239-8283 are the resistances and 7838-7792-7748-7684-7630-7582-7540-7515-7471-7422 are supports. Have a wonderful festival filled trading week ahead. Avoid crackers and have a pollution free Deepawali. BEATdSTREET subscribe@beatdstreet
Posted on: Tue, 21 Oct 2014 02:51:04 +0000
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