A LOOK AHEAD TO WHAT WINTER MAY HAVE IN STORE FOR US. Ive been keeping a close eye on some of the organisations that I trust which put out long-range weather forecasts for the winter ahead. Long-range forecasting of any kind is extremely difficult, even with the technology we have at our disposal the best we can do at long-range is identify trends rather than specifics. There are so many factors that go into considering what the winter ahead may hold such as the behaviour of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO - which is related to El Nino/La Nina), OPI (October Pattern Index), Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTS - especially in May). Even if these factors are in favour it will also depend on the Jet Stream and the behaviour of two important semi-permanent areas of High Pressure, the Scandinavian and Greenland Highs. The Greenland High in particular is important because when it ridges southward, it cuts off the flow of warm. moist air from the Atlantic. This blocking then introduces a feed of cold air direct from the polar region. In general terms then what I am expecting for the winter ahead is that temperature wise it is likely to be below average and precipitation wise it is likely to be slightly above average. This is likely to mean a cold winter with possibly higher than average snowfall, however, it is impossible to predict the where, when and how much at this stage. It could mean, for example, that the north-east of Scotland gets lots of snow but we by comparison do not, its impossible to tell. So without being too specific I expect the period of Jan-Feb to be the coldest with the possibility of fairly extensive snowfall events. I expect December to be around average temp and precip wise. I know people like the idea of snow at Christmas but it needs to be remembered that significant snowfall events in December are the exception rather than the rule, December is not necessarily a particularly snowy month although Im sure we all remember 1995 - but that was exceptional circumstances. Also bear in mind that whilst Im expecting a colder/snowier winter, that is ON AVERAGE - there will be warmer, milder spells through the winter as you would expect. Pay no attention to the sorts of apocalyptic headlines regularly trotted out at this time of year by certain newspapers - their job is to sell newspapers!
Posted on: Thu, 13 Nov 2014 12:07:08 +0000
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