A Putin that is driven by ideology represents a much graver threat to the western world than a Russian President motivated by economics and/or geopolitics. Ideologues are not subdued with economic sanctions, and they are not satisfied with being guaranteed a sphere of geopolitical influence. According to Putin’s expansionist ideology, the historic mission of Russia is to undermine and destroy the foundations of liberal democracy. In this respect, the Russian President seeks to achieve the same goals (although for different reasons) as do radical Islamists: to change the course of Eurasian civilizational development from a path of decent into decadence brought on by post-Enlightenment liberalism, to a more righteous course of traditionalist family (authoritarian, pan-Slavic, orthodox etc.) values. Expansion westward is therefore just a matter of time: it is the manifest destiny of the righteous Putin who presides over the “third Rome” to bring order and orthodoxy (in the broadest sense of the term) to a world led astray by liberalism.......... Containment is expensive. Assassination is illegal. Destabilization takes time. None of these options are attractive. This week, western commentators (most notably former US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates) have started to admit that Crimea is “lost” – i.e. that the West has no desire to fight for it, and Ukraine has insufficient capability to retake it. Sadly, I agree with them. However, at this point I see no reason to recant my previous prediction: immediately after the March 16 referendum in Crimea, Putin will continue expanding his Eurasian dominion to eastern and southern Ukraine. Indeed, the predicted destabilization of these regions with mass demonstrations (often attended by citizens of the Russian Federation bused in from regions across the border) has been ongoing and will continue this week. The next phase of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to commence in the vicinity of March 18-20. It will be short and massive, and the extent of military advance will depend on the effectiveness of Ukraine’s resistance (which, unlike in Crimea, will not be restrained, nor peaceful). It is possible that air raids on Kyiv will be launched in order to destroy the “heart of hell” of Ukraine’s revolution (the name given to Maidan by Russian Orthodox clergy), and some command and control centers. At this point, unless the West begins to understand the true ideological motives of Putin, I am not optimistic about Ukraine maintaining the integrity of even its mainland territorial borders until the end of this month. On the other hand, by Easter this conflict will be over. Modern wars do not last long. Unless NATO gets directly involved in the defense of Ukraine (e.g. by instituting a “no-fly” zone), by the end of April, the map of Europe will have been redrawn and irreparable damage done to the international security system. Furthermore, Putin will not have been stopped – merely temporarily impeded from spreading Eurasianism beyond the Dnipro river. But his determination will grow, and eventually he will strike westward again. And each time, his expansion will cost lives… God help us! https://facebook/notes/mychailo-wynnyckyj/thoughts-from-kyiv-on-the-putin-problem-10-march-2014/715655218485831
Posted on: Tue, 11 Mar 2014 13:26:18 +0000
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