A brilliant comment made on one of the groups I frequent. I have articulated similar comments but not in this way. Truly worth sharing. This is exhausting, yet extremely urgent. I am currently in my schools library, working on two papers (I am in Political Science), which of course means I am reading all kinds of political articles for research. Of the current articles I am reading, the comments sections are leading me to believe that action to correct this problem must be done immediately: Liberal voters are actually trying the same old line of advocating that NDP voters and progressives vote Liberal to oust the Tories and not split the vote on the left. They are not realizing that this time around, it is actually THEY (Liberals) who are splitting the vote. The NDP won 103 ridings/seats in the last election. They also came in second to the Conservatives in another 107 seats/ridings. That is a total of 200 seats/ridings (170 are needed to form a majority government). The ONLY actual and accurate poll that we have is the result of the 2011 election (the last election). Given the DISMAL track record of the polling industry in the last decade (and especially in the last few years), those polls are useless, and the only most recent accurate poll that we have available is the one that was taken in 2011 (the last federal election). Also, historically, by-elections are actually incredibly inaccurate indicators/predictors of the results of a general election. In fact, the majority of the time, parties that do badly in by-elections end up either winning or doing extremely well in the general election; while parties that do extremely well in by-elections end up losing in the general election. (There are many theories out there as to why this is, one of them being that - in the context of this election - people arent paying that much attention, and are parking their vote with the Liberals, knowing that the outcome of the by-election wont change the power situation in the House. However, once the actual election campaign starts, and Trudeau sounds either too scripted or the usual disaster ensues when he goes OFF script, in addition to the leaders debate where he wont have any advisers giving him answers. Plus, when canvassing door-to-door, even those who say they might vote Liberal - when asked about whether they are scared about the fact that Trudeau has no experience qualifying him to run a G7 country (unlike his father, he is not an intellectual whose intellect and academics can make up for that), they actually nervously chuckle and warily say maybe hell learn on the job? As has been proven in previous elections historically, once it actually comes down to crunch time, voters will start to actually think seriously about those doubts that they had put aside earlier, and they will become ten-second NDPers or Conservatives, as they actually think of the implications of their vote. They will still publicly identify as Liberal voters, but will be ten-second **insert non-Liberal Party name** voters in the voting booth. It is similar to what happened to Adrian Dix and the BC NDP. The Trudeau Liberals are very likely suffering from the same problem that the BC NDP was. The BC NDP also won by-elections by landslides, and polled amazingly... until voters started thinking about their vote more deeply during the ACTUAL election. So, if progressive voters want to vote strategically, they should vote for the NDP candidate in their riding. If you are in a non-Conservative riding, then you should vote for the incumbent. If you are in a Conservative riding, then voting NDP is your best shot at ousting the Tories. If you want to vote strategically, then the only time you should be voting Liberal this time around should be if you live in one of the 34 ridings that the Liberals won in the last election. In any other riding, voting Liberal will actually split the vote and hand the Tories another victory. This needs to be communicated quickly and loudly, as I am seeing all these comments from Liberals actually trying to say that the NDP will split the vote, which is just not true this time around. #NDP #StopHarper #Canada #CDNpoli
Posted on: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 21:47:50 +0000
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