A cold front is likely for Sunday with much colder temperatures with highs in the 30s. Temperatures will warm-up some before another cold front comes mid-week. A mild Tuesday relatively speaking with lower 50s. A 1061 mb high pressure system is expected to deliver..I thought a glancing blow to the region, but latest indications a full-blown winter blast into the region. Have lowered highs/lows for the region. Highs near freezing or below and lows well into the teens are likely for Wednesday into Thursday. Latest guidance shows in the lows in the mid-teens...Continues to drop. - With hesitation in the forecast for the 5 to 7-day period inserted slight chances of frozen precipitation. The reason for this is because cold air is expected to be in place already, but the moisture/timing of the system precludes higher probabilities of precipitation. The latest GFS/GFS parallel/CMC model guidance suggest some overrunning precipitation over a cold air-mass over parts of the region. This is similar to this last event, with more cold air in place this time. Snow cant be discounted in this scenario either, but at this time warm-air advection coming in place precludes the mention of snow. At this time freezing rain/sleet with a change over to rain appears most likely should timing hold. A delay will mean a better chance of rain, however there is something that could destroy this theory...Some guidance points to yet another reinforcing shot of cold air and should it delay further chances of wintry precipitation increase. Just something to monitor at this time, and will go conservative. This whole scenario could change and bring snow to the region...Could bring just mainly rain. Or all of it! Most likely is rain/freezing rain/sleet scenario. A winter storm is possible?
Posted on: Sat, 03 Jan 2015 20:17:59 +0000
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