ABNT20 KNHC 061721 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ALLOWED IT TO STAY OVER WATER AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES...IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN A FEW SQUALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING... ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... 20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS... A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR TWO...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. && FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Posted on: Fri, 06 Sep 2013 19:13:05 +0000
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