[ANOTHER ECONOMIC CRISIS AND STOCK MARKET DISASTER?] dont wait and see,let buy gold because gold is the real money and wealth detail +601118889786. TOP TEN STOCK MARKET RISK which I recently discussed in Bloomberg TV World. My quick observation, as at today, Bursa has tumbled 9%, Ringgit has fallen 11% and Oil has tanked 40% in five months. Are we going to see another economic crash ? Not yet. In fact, it may be a good time to be more aggressive especially on local tech stocks which are generally positive when ringgit falls. Briefly, TOP TEN stock market risk which need to be controlled : 1. Oil Melt Down 40%. The negative effects of falling oil, palm oil and rubber for Malaysian are two fold. It hit corporate earnings and will also hit people disposable income especially in rural areas, posing a further risk to the economy. 2. Ringgit Melt Down 11%. Ringgit has depreciated 11% this year alone to the lowest level in six years (from 3.15 to 3.51), the second worst performing currency in Asia after Yen. Short positions in Malaysias ringgit reached their largest since the 2008 global financial crisis. Any further bash of ringgit will affect investor and business confidence. 3. Malaysia Public Debt Rising 5% Every Year. Both our government debt (RM560 billion) and consumer debt (RM750 billion) is at 53% and 76% per cent of our economy, growing on average 5% a year. Note that our household debt ratio is among the highest in the Asian region. Any first sign of major default will definitely rock the country’s economy. 4. Malaysia Export Losing Momentum 3%. Malaysia’s economy expanded at the slowest rate in the third quarter, growing by 5.6 per cent and falling short of the 6.5 per cent projected in the previous quarter primarily due to slow down of exports in oil, palm and rubber. Malaysia total exports is roughly RM750 billion or 75% of the total economy and already dropped 3% in October 2014. 5. Bank Negara Move Too Slow. The Asian banks including Bank Negara may move too slow to intervene when other developed Central Banks start to increase interest rates. If BNM and other Asian central banks waits too long to hike interest rates, it runs the risk of foreign fund outflow and ringgit depreciation and creating more asset bubbles especially properties and real estate. 6. USA Federal Reserve Moves Too Fast. Investors are expecting the Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates sometime next quarter due to solid USA economic data. This may result in huge funds rotating back to New York for better financial returns. 7. China Bumpy Economic Landing. So far China made an uneven economic recovery with property and market bubble premature burst. China has implemented painful structural reforms to soft land and make economic model sustainable. Being the second largest world economy, soft landing can adversely affect Asian neighbours. 8. Japan - China Bloody Currency War. We see serious battle of money printing between China and Japan. Both compete against each other to achieve a lower exchange rate to boost their export competitiveness. Prolonged currency war will benefit no one and will harm Malaysia trade even more. 9. The Return Of Scary Cold War Russia - USA. As Ukraine-Russia conflict escalates, there is a threat of a new cold war developing on the gas supply rich Ukraine. While tensions between Russia and Ukraine appear to be contained, there is still a chance it could spiral into a broader conflict involving the United States, Russia, Europe and even China. 10. The Super Rise of China. The biggest geopolitical challenge of these decade, is how the world will react to Chinas growing economic, political, innovation and military power. There are signs that USA government is not comfortable and have single picked China as their main opponent in the next decade overriding Europe, India, Russia and Japan. Any confrontation could lead to conflict between the global super powers and create more volatililty in the stock market. (dont wait and see,let buy gold because gold is the real money and wealth detail +601118889786.) youtu.be/9r-0MJx6hBU
Posted on: Thu, 11 Dec 2014 06:32:34 +0000
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