AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 500 AM CST MON NOV 18 2013 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS. UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE EXPECT AND INCREASE OF HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST MON NOV 18 2013/ .DISCUSSION... A BIT COOLER TODAY AS WEAK CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA... BUT STILL MILD FOR MID-NOVEMBER. SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING. THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT... BUT LOOKS TO ONLY PROVIDE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS AS ITS TRANSLATES THROUGH THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING AS WAA BEGINS TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NORTH TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY OCCUR AGAIN WED NIGHT BEFORE MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SLIDES SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS MAY BE... AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES AND POSSIBLY PRECIP TYPE. AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW BEGINNING THU NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST AND SAG THIS WORDING FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A BIT MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW BECOMING A CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK THEN LETTING IT SET NEAR THE BAJA FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE OPENING THE SYSTEM UP AND SLIDING IT EAST THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A RESPITE IN THE PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 42 64 47 / 0 0 10 20 HOBART OK 64 40 65 48 / 0 0 10 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 67 43 68 49 / 0 0 10 20 GAGE OK 63 34 67 44 / 0 0 10 10 PONCA CITY OK 62 38 63 45 / 0 0 10 20 DURANT OK 68 45 66 47 / 0 0 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK
Posted on: Mon, 18 Nov 2013 14:36:41 +0000
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