AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 182129Z - 182330Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED. DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM W-CNTRL KS SWD INTO FAR N-CNTRL OK AND THEN SEWD INTO E-CNTRL OK. CONDITIONS W/SW OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S WITH DEWPOINTS IN LOW TO MID 60S WITH CONDITIONS E/NE OF THE BOUNDARY MORE MOIST BUT COOLER. ALONG THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S ARE JUXTAPOSED WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...SUPPORTING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED FROM 3000-4000 J PER KG. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK WITH LITTLE STORM ORGANIZATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND WIND. UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL FAVOR PROPAGATION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT COUPLED WITH A DISORGANIZED MODE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED. ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2014
Posted on: Mon, 18 Aug 2014 21:52:25 +0000