An Extrapolation of Available Projected Student Population Data For Neshaminy School District This paper will take data produced for and provided by Neshaminy School District and extend the projections from 4 years to 9, thus providing a more thorough look into what Neshaminy School District population numbers will look like taking into account the increased Kindergarten enrollment numbers. At the end, I shall also extend these numbers to 12 years to allow the first group of full-day Kindergarteners to reach 12th grade, giving a more complete look at what the average District enrollment numbers will look like with 12 years of Kindergarteners enrolled and the first group ready to leave the District school population. At no point is Tawanka or the Tech school included in these numbers. The following projection is the data provided by Sundance Associates, dated March 31, 2014 from the Amendment to District-Wide Facility Study dated October 23, 2014: Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 District 2014 454 729 618 675 651 645 644 691 676 700 598 630 641 8352 2015 499 573 683 626 690 655 672 652 692 668 678 600 619 8307 2016 540 630 538 691 640 694 683 681 653 684 647 679 589 8349 2017 471 679 588 542 704 641 721 689 680 643 659 645 664 8326 2018 505 592 634 593 552 705 666 727 688 669 620 657 631 8239 In the aforementioned Amendment, Spiezle Architectural Group updated that projection to take into account higher than anticipated Kindergarten enrollment due to the new full-day Kindergarten. Notably, this information was not included in the Tawanka Act 34 Hearing Brochure despite being released prior to the Act 34 brochure. This is easily checked by noting on the Neshaminy School Board website “Oct 2014” next to the Amendment and “Nov 2014” next to the Act 34 brochure. As can be seen, this updated projection is already almost 500 students higher than what the Act 34 brochure states by 2018. As these are the District’s own numbers, they should not be refuted. Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 District 2014 585 729 618 675 651 645 644 691 676 700 598 630 641 8483 2015 643 627 683 626 690 655 672 652 692 668 678 600 619 8505 2016 696 689 625 691 640 694 683 681 653 684 647 679 589 8651 2017 607 746 687 625 704 641 721 689 680 643 659 645 664 8711 2018 651 650 743 687 625 705 666 727 688 669 620 657 631 8719Here are the full extended projections made by Sundance, March 31, 2014. In the Act 34 brochure, here is what Neshaminy School District stated: “The School District commissioned its own Demographic Study, performed by Sundance, dated March 31, 2014. This study contained enrollment projections that were fairly similar to PDE calculations, so for the purposes of the Plancon process, the PDE projections were utilized for facility planning.” It should be noted that when the current plan to close three schools, open a new one at the Tawanka site and move 5th graders to the Middle Schools, these are the projection numbers they were taking into account. Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 District 2014 454 729 618 675 651 645 644 691 676 700 598 630 641 8352 2015 499 573 683 626 690 655 672 652 692 668 678 600 619 8307 2016 540 630 538 691 640 694 683 681 653 684 647 679 589 8349 2017 471 679 588 542 704 641 721 689 680 643 659 645 664 8326 2018 505 592 634 593 552 705 666 727 688 669 620 657 631 8239 2019 505 635 552 639 603 553 733 672 726 677 645 618 643 8201 2020 505 635 593 557 650 604 575 739 670 714 652 643 605 8142 2021 505 635 593 598 567 651 628 580 738 659 688 651 629 8122 2022 505 635 593 598 609 568 677 633 578 726 636 686 637 8081 2023 506 635 593 598 609 610 590 683 632 569 699 634 671 8029 Now I am going to extrapolate the student enrollment projections based upon the updated Spiezle numbers cited above. In doing so, there are two assumptions that must be made: 1. When Sundance estimated the Kindergarten enrollment, they underestimated the student numbers. This is why Spiezle updated the projections. Starting in 2018, Sundance started using the same class size for Kindergarten through 2023. I shall be using the updated projection for Kindergarten size by Spiezle for 2018 and carrying it through to 2023, as this was the acceptable methodology used by Sundance. This number (651) is a realistic number based upon the preceding projected Kindergarten enrollment numbers as shown above by Spiezle. 2. I have taken the averages of increase/decrease of students from year-to-year of both the Sundance and Spiezle tables to establish a baseline approximation of what percentage are gained or lost from grade to grade. These numbers are shown below. The averages are consistent outside of two cohorts – K-1 and 1-2. K-1 makes obvious sense, as the greater Sundance underestimates the Kindergarten enrollment, the greater the percentage gain to 1st grade. There is a larger than expected drop in my opinion in Sundance 1-2, but taking into consideration how large an increase their K-1 average is, I didn’t mind seeing some correction.Spiezle K-1 averages a 7.2% gain Sundance K-1 averages 25.8% gain Spiezle 1-2 averages a 98.1% retention rate Sundance 1-2 averages 93.5% retention rate Spiezle 2-3 averages a .6% gain Sundance 2-3 averages .9% gain Spiezle 3-4 averages a 1.6% gain Sundance 3-4 averages 1.9% gain Spiezle 4-5 averages a .4% gain Sundance 4-5 averages .3% gain Spiezle 5-6 averages a 4.1% gain Sundance 5-6 averages 4% gain Spiezle 6-7 averages a 1.1% gain Sundance 6-7 averages 1% gain Spiezle 7-8 is flat Sundance 7-8 averages 99.9% retention rate Spiezle 8-9 has a 98.6% retention rate Sundance 8-9 averages 98.5% retention rate Spiezle 9- 10 has a 96.6% retention rate Sundance 9-10 averages 96.5% retention rate Spiezle 10- 11 is flat Sundance 10-11 averages 99.8% retention rate Spiezle 11- 12 has a 98% retention rate Sundance 11-12 averages 97.9% retention rate Since I have two sets of averages to work with, I have extrapolated the projected enrollment numbers using both sets of values, to establish a “low” and “high”. The first table is using Speizle’s year-to-year percentages. The first five years are still Spiezle’s projections:Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 District 2014 585 729 618 675 651 645 644 691 676 700 598 630 641 8483 2015 643 627 683 626 690 655 672 652 692 668 678 600 619 8505 2016 696 689 625 691 640 694 683 681 653 684 647 679 589 8651 2017 607 746 687 625 704 641 721 689 680 643 659 645 664 8711 2018 651 650 743 687 625 705 666 727 688 669 620 657 631 8719 2019 651 698 638 747 698 628 734 673 727 678 646 620 644 8782 2020 651 698 685 642 759 701 654 742 673 717 655 646 608 8831 2021 651 698 685 689 652 762 730 661 742 664 693 655 633 8915 2022 651 698 685 689 700 655 793 738 661 732 641 693 642 8978 2023 652 698 685 689 700 703 682 802 738 652 707 641 679 9028 2024 651 699 685 689 700 703 732 690 802 728 630 707 628 9044 2025 651 698 686 689 700 703 732 740 690 791 703 630 693 9106 2026 651 698 685 690 700 703 732 740 740 680 764 703 617 9103 As you can see, even using the low of Spiezle’s 7.2% gain from K-1, by 2023 we are almost exactly 1,000 (999) students above the projection made by Sundance in March 2014, which is what was used when crafting the current consolidation plan. For comparison and completeness, I also prepared the same numbers based on the Sundance numbers and rate of gain. I do believe the K-1 percentage would have been adjusted lower by them had they realized they underestimated the Kindergarten enrollment so badly. The large drop in rate from 1-2 helps to alleviate this, but still doesn’t come close to compensating. Once again, the first five years are Spiezle’s updated projections: Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 District 2014 585 729 618 675 651 645 644 691 676 700 598 630 641 8483 2015 643 627 683 626 690 655 672 652 692 668 678 600 619 8505 2016 696 689 625 691 640 694 683 681 653 684 647 679 589 8651 2017 607 746 687 625 704 641 721 689 680 643 659 645 664 8711 2018 651 650 743 687 625 705 666 727 688 669 620 657 631 8719 2019 651 819 608 750 700 627 733 673 726 678 646 619 643 8873 2020 651 819 766 613 764 702 652 740 672 715 654 645 606 8999 2021 651 819 766 773 625 766 730 659 739 662 690 653 631 9164 2022 651 819 766 773 788 627 797 737 658 728 639 689 639 9311 2023 652 819 766 773 788 790 652 805 736 648 703 638 675 9445 2024 651 820 766 773 788 790 822 659 804 725 625 702 625 9550 2025 651 819 767 773 788 790 822 830 658 792 700 624 687 9701 2026 651 819 766 774 788 790 822 830 829 648 764 699 611 9791I have endeavored to make these projections as fair and complete as I could with the available given data. The projections through 2018 should not be in dispute as they are the most recently updated numbers the School District has procured. Even using the low rate of gain from Spiezle by 2023, we are looking at an approximate 1,000 student increase over what was originally projected, and what was used when crafting the current school consolidation plan. While I don’t believe the Sundance extrapolated numbers to be practical, given the large underestimation of Kindergarten by them, resulting in a large percentage increase using this methodology of projection, it is worth noting that even a small increase over what Spiezle estimates will inflate these numbers quickly. I believe that this type of analysis should have been performed by the School District prior to proceeding with the consolidation plan and Act 34 hearings. Considering they had the updated numbers for the first five years in hand, and they knew they differed from the PDE calculations and Sundance calculations, I question whether this was omitted from the Act 34 brochure on purpose. In any case, to not now update their extended enrollment projections and reconsider their preferred consolidation plan in light of the higher than anticipated numbers would be negligent at best. Thank you to the reader for taking the time to look through this number-heavy document. Sincerely, Matt Wilityer, resident of Forsythia Gate, Levittown
Posted on: Sun, 07 Dec 2014 09:46:59 +0000