An introduction for Silent Risk. Presenting the difference between - TopicsExpress

An introduction for Silent Risk. Presenting the difference between verbalistic description of probabilistic events and the true rigorous (contractual or mathematical) one. We really dont know what we are talking about when we talk about probability. Except, of course, firefighters. Adding (p 55) a definition of a Charlatan. Why verbalistic predictions (and prediction markets) are nonsense. https://docs.google/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QINW1YQm1uSmRjcmc/edit

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