And there are, indeed, other methodological issues which, when put together, tend to suggest that the presidency is apt in describing the APC opinion polling as an exercise in quackery. First, which population was being studied? Is it the educated alone or urban resident? What kind of sampling method was adopted? How representative of the population were the samples? How sure are we that respondents understood the questions put to them? Some of the purported outcomes of the inquiry can only validate the methodological flaws in the APC polling, and nothing more. How can a social researcher claim that Nigerians prefer to vote for APC candidate against Jonathan, when APC has no candidate? Does it also imply that even if APC fields a dog against Jonathan, Nigerians will vote the dog? This is another APC sleight of the hand. When APC and its consultants set about collecting data to suit a predetermined answer, which in academics is roguery anyway, they forgot that voting behaviour is not only determined by partisan identification. Other factors that influence vote choice in the literature include issues, personality and ethnicity. To pretend that these factors are not important in a highly divided society like ours by a public opinion consultant and a political party angling for power is the height of deceit. Moreover, even in terms of partisan identification, PDP is far ahead of the APC and any polling that seems to suggest otherwise is patently unreliable. For some weeks now, APC has been staking its claim of popularity against the PDP to its own detriment. They tried it in the House of Representatives and were out-numbered by the PDP. They tried it in the Senate and the ruling party left it with a black eye. The latest attempt at exaggerating its popular acceptability by hiring a largely public relations company and mistaking it for a research organisation only confirms that the party is embarking on a journey to nowhere. Or perhaps they are headed for the Red Sea as Dr Doyin Okupe had earlier predicted.
Posted on: Fri, 07 Mar 2014 06:39:30 +0000
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