Another Monday, Another Rally Posted on 11/10/2014 by The Beef By Cassie Fish, CassandraFish After a bullish finish Friday, CME cattle futures have continued their upswing to start the week pushing above last week’s highs easily and in a methodical, calm manner. There’s not much new news as of yet- the season’s first big winter storm will blow through north of most of cattle feeding country, so that’s not a factor, though the sharply colder temperatures are a reminder that weather can become a market moving factor anytime over the next 4-5 months. Last Week’s Cash Trade Not Too Bad Friday’s cash trade turned out a little softer and a little better than anticipated. Prices were barely steady to mostly a $1 lower, but all four major packers participated at times, despite fears and proclamations of the contrary. A Few “Tops” Bids Out So far this morning, a couple of packers have issued “tops” bids $1.50 over, high enough to be taken seriously but also, sending the “business as usual” signal and nothing more. Early talk is already portending steady cash prices for this week. Small Kills; Big Cattle Last week’s 564,000 head kill was slightly larger than expected and 11k head bigger than the prior week-this in spite or worsening packer margins since cutout values slipped last week and the rib is the only bright spot. Early guesses for this week’s slaughter are in the 560k area. These cumulative small kills can’t be offset even though fed cattle weights are record large. Currently, there just aren’t many cattle unspoken for nor many cattle period. YTD cattle slaughter is down 7.7% while YTD beef production is down 6%. Cattle weights will exceed a year ago for a long time to come, but seasonally weights top in early November then decline through April, a irrefutable response to Mother nature. This single fact makes the level of severity of this winter loom large in the back of the minds of all who make their living in some way connected to the beef industry. The Beef is published by Consolidated Beef Producers…for more info click here. Disclaimer: The Beef, CBP nor Cassie Fish shall not be liable for decisions or actions taken based on the data/information/opinions.
Posted on: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 17:59:03 +0000