At long last, my thoughts on the Tyler Clippard-Yunel Escobar trade (bear with me, this WILL get long. Its a lot more nuanced than a typical Boo this sucks!): First of all, I should note that I only heard the news as a bulletin while I was out last night, and my initial reaction was probably at least partly like most Nats fans: sad to see Clippard go. I always suspected he would be our likeliest trading chip, though (valuable reliever, but getting up there in age and soon to be a free agent), so in that respect, I wasnt surprised at all. I just wanted to take some time to process this in relation to the Nats outlook as a whole, setting aside the personal attachment. I also did not want to be burdened with what Im sure was an emotional uproar from this crowd, so I didnt dive into the posts on here before I had a chance to thoroughly analyze the deal. Clippard has always been a fan favorite, and we could have gotten Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, and cryogenic Ted Williams in return and people would still have cried NOoO0! WHYyYYY???!? FIRE RiZZOoOoOO!1! With all of that in mind, my reasoned response, a day of processing later: 1) We all have emotional ties to our favorite players, but they all will more than likely leave. I can safely say I dont like the trade! but only because I like Tyler Clippard and I dont know much about Yunel Escobar. I can quite easily not LIKE the trade from an emotional standpoint, but whole-heartedly SUPPORT it from a baseball and business standpoint. The two are not mutually exclusive. I will miss Tyler regardless, and thats whether or not this trade makes us better and wins us a championship. 2) That said, the trade makes baseball sense. Our bullpen was an area of strength, even with the Soriano meltdown: - 2nd best bullpen WAR in the NL behind only the Giants. - 2nd best relief ERA in the NL behind only the Padres. - 3rd best bullpen WHIP in the NL behind the Giants and Padres. - 2nd best relief K/BB ratio behind only the Padres. As we all know, middle infield was an area of weakness, at least at second base (and possibly shortstop after this season until Trea Turner is ready). Deal from strength to improve weakness. Escobar is an improvement on Espinosa or Uggla, and relief arms are MUCH easier to plug and play. Will the bullpen be as good without Clippard? Almost unquestionably not, but I think Matt Thornton has the experience (and lefty guile) and Aaron Barrett has the young talent to step up and fill a deeper role in the bullpen effectively. 3) The trade makes even more business sense. Yes, the Nationals have to watch their payroll. We are not the Yankees or Dodgers, especially as long as that crook up in Baltimore keeps stealing our MASN money with MLBs blessing. In that light, dealing a guy who is set to make $9-10 million to pitch one inning every other day (and not even the 9th inning), for an solid everyday middle infielder who will make $4-5 million less is essentially a no-brainer. Also, Clippard will become a free agent after next season, possibly commanding as much as $48 million over 4 seasons, so we would likely have said goodbye to him at this time next year anyway. Escobar, meanwhile, is signed through 2016 ($5 million this year, $7 million next), and we have a team option for 2017 for another $7 million (or a $1 million buyout if he doesnt work out). As other articles put it, basically we are trading one year of a reliever for 2-3 years of a middle infielder, a deal MLB GMs will almost always snap up. The fact that Escobars contract is also so reasonable (and with a club option) makes it even better. 4) Escobar provides Desmond insurance. Look, Id love if we signed Ian too, but we have to plan accordingly since hes apparently rejected a deal of a $107 million over 7 years. Hell be 30 next season too, so will he be worth the reported $150 million hes looking for until hes, what, 36? Maybe, but I doubt it. In the increasingly likely case Desmond does walk next season, Escobar provides a ready replacement on a very affordable contract until Trea Turner arrives. By 2018, we could be looking at a Trea Turner/Wilmer Difo double play combination, and some estimate Turner may be ready by 2017, at which point we could even buy out Escobar for $1 million. This is the succession plan we didnt have in place prior to acquiring these two shortstops at opposite ends of their careers. And, oh by the way, none of this precludes signing Desmond and keeping Escobar (and maybe ultimately Turner) at second base either. But now we have a reasonable alternate option and wont be held ransom. 5) Clippard has been good, very good even, possibly great at times. But he has not been elite. When looking at relievers, I like to look at the Shutdown-Meltdown stats, which I think provide more insight than your standard Saves and Holds. Help your team win? (i.e. improve win probability by 6%). Get a Shutdown. In reverse (decrease your chance of winning by 6%) and you get a Meltdown. Yes, Clippard has the second most Shutdowns in baseball since he became a regular setup man in 2010 (166, behind only Jonathan Papelbon at 176). But he also has 59 Meltdowns, the third most among relievers with 100+ Shutdowns in that period (Matt Belisle, 66, and Luke Gregerson, 60). That 74% rate ranks just 26th on the list of 35 relievers (Greg Holland the best at 85%, Belisle the worst at 64%). We like Clippard because he was so durable, out there for almost every important 8th inning for almost five years. But for all the hand-wringing about the other members of the bullpen, Clippard had his fair share of implosions as well. Maybe they werent in as high profile situations, but he was far from infallible. (Lovable... but not infallible.) 6) This Escobar guy really has been damn good. Did you know he has: - The same career batting average as Jayson Werth (.276). Only Nats higher: Ryan Zimmerman (.286), Denard Span (.286), and Anthony Rendon (.279). - A career on-base percentage (.347) exactly between Bryce Harper (.351) and Anthony Rendon (.343). Only Nats higher: Jayson Werth (.370), Ryan Zimmerman (.352), and Denard Span (.352). - A career slugging percentage (.381) just behind Danny Espinosa (.387), but with a batting average and on-base percentage 48 points higher. The most similar career slash line to Escobars .276/.347/.381 is Denard Span at .286/.352/.392 (basically Escobar is a slightly lesser Span at the plate). Or, if you want to also consider: Asdrubal Cabrera .268/.330/.409 (Escobar doesnt have quite as much pop, but has a better average and gets on more, in addition to being $3 million cheaper). Escobar also has almost the exact same walk and strikeout rates as Span (9% BB, 11% K, while Span is 9%/12% for his career). Both are really good. The only Nats and recent Nats with a 10%+ career walk rate: Werth (12%), Uggla (11%), Harper, LaRoche, Ian Stewart, McLouth (10% each). The only current or recent Nat with a strikeout rate lower than Escobars 11% is Kevin Frandsen at 9% (though Frandsen only walks 5% of the time). SUMMARY: Do I love the trade? No, but only because I do love Tyler Clippard. I knew he would leave eventually, but its difficult to accept that hes gone. However, I do believe this does make us more likely to win in 2015, and certainly better positioned for 2016 and beyond. The head and the heart are just going to have to just agree to disagree on this one.
Posted on: Thu, 15 Jan 2015 20:55:11 +0000
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