#BTW #4WXGEEKS: Temperatures will be on their way down for the rest of the year in 2015 will start cold. The new year will also start with a complicated storm system which could bring a variety of precipitation types as we head into next weekend. The models are honestly back and forth on the track of what will be the next storm system to impact Ohio. The good news is, we still have plenty of time for them to figure things out as we are in store for some relatively quiet (but colder) weather next week. Below I posted the current operational GFS model (left pic1) and its new counterpart, the parallel / higher resolution GFS (right pic1). You can see the two have a little bit different idea of the storm track next weekend, and thus bring different types of precipitation. What you dont see here is that the high res version has a wintry mix developing Friday evening and changing to rain briefly Saturday before going over to all snow Saturday night. The operational GFS would also have a wintry mix Friday night followed by a changeover to just rain Saturday before ending. It honestly is just too early to know which one is correct. I can tell you last nights European model (ECMWF) also showed a wintery mix Friday night changing to heavy rain Saturday. So what DO the models agree on?? Well, all three models (GFS-O, GFS-P and ECMWF) show once that storm goes by next weekend, it will likely set the stage for a true arctic front to arrive around Tuesday, January 6th. That front would likely be accompanied by snow and the coldest air of winter so far. The last picture I posted shows forecast overnight lows for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning (1/7). Just a note though, I said all the models do agree on this, but that is still pretty far out and things could change a bit. But almost all of our long-range indicators show very cold air arriving for early January.
Posted on: Sun, 28 Dec 2014 17:32:30 +0000
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