Between dream and reality Is there still a place for the car in tomorrow´s traffic? If the predictions come true, in the near future three quarters of the population will be living in megacities of ten, twenty and thirty million inhabitants. This kind of metropolises already exist in Asia and Central America. The traffic in those cities is practically non-moving and causes an enormous amount of air pollution. The traffic of tomorrow will require innovative solutions. Between dream and reality there is a huge difference. The economy in countries like China and South Korea is booming like never before, car sales keep increasing every year. As here, there the car also stands for individual liberty and mobility. However, reality is far from it. Most of the time the traffic in the streets of Beijing, Shanghai or Seoul is as good as immobile and precious time is lost in endless traffic jams. Moreover, the air is ruined by the harmful exhaust gasses. I would not live in any of those mega-cities for all the money in the world. The quality of life is below zero and I cannot imagine that anyone wants (or can) grow old there. Ways out of the impasse Politics and industry are both searching for ways out. Politics acknowledges that for the time being it is impossible to imagine our traffic without cars, therefore they impose very strict emission standards. In the long term only electrical or hydrogen cars will be able to meet those standards. At an international forum in Stuttgart with eminent speakers form from politics and industry it was made clear that for now all options are open. This reinforces the suspicion that both systems will be used on the condition that they use renewable energy and that the industry finds a solution to the weight and recycling of the battery as well as for the storage of hydrogen in the car. Advancement should also be made in the development of a supply infrastructure of charging stations and power wiring in the roadway to hydrogen stations. In the meantime, the so-called plug-in hybrids (a combination of an electrical and a conventional motor) will conquer part of the car market and we will increasingly switch over to bio fuels. Car brands such as Renault and Nissan, which have tried to skip this intermediate step, might have to pay their over-boldness at a high expense. Innovations that seem to be too far ahead of their time, often turn out to be a poor investment. In the specific case of electrical motors little or no political support makes it difficult for the manufactures. The public authorities have not placed the desired orders, making sales of electric cars remain far below expectations. This means that the investment costs are amortized on very few cars. Hence, this explains the still high price on electric cars. Certainly from the perspective of the private user. Private car ownership will become a priceless luxury The city car of the future will also look different, mainly because an electrical or fuel cell has far fewer components, uses less space and is lighter. The city car of tomorrow will almost entirely be made out of plastic and light metals. It will have less on board safety equipment because the driver assistance systems will reduce the risk of accidents to virtually zero. In the future, owning a private car will be a priceless luxury. Imagine that in a city of 35 million inhabitants each family has a private car. This would not only lead to virtually non-moving traffic but also to an enormous parking problem. Ideas such as car sharing are therefore brought to the table. Experience shows that one of these cars will replace eight to ten of the previous ones. Combined transport will also be more and more widely accepted. Where both the private car, scooter, bicycle and public transport are used as means of transportation. A large-scale trend research in Germany shows that 77 percent of those surveyed think that the car will have a secondary role when it comes to transportation. For many young people owning a car no longer seems to be a target, and that precisely in the car country Germany. Nevertheless, the German Minister of Environment Altmaier expects the number of cars worldwide to double by 2030. This means that the CO2 emissions will increase, despite new cars being 10 to 20 percent more efficient. The peroration in Stuttgart was for BMW CEO Norbert Reithofer who was willing to take up the challenge and instead of looking at the car as something of the past he sees it as a product for the future. With this he anticipated the promise made by Minister Altmaier, that Deutsche Post and Deutsche Bahn will equip their fleet with electrical cars at an accelerated pace. This is the first step in the right direction. However, it does not solve the problem of mobility. We have indeed reached a crossroads without anyone knowing where to go. That is not a reassuring prospect for anyone.
Posted on: Sun, 29 Sep 2013 18:19:38 +0000