By Simon Ateba/Lagos The presidential election in Nigeria is exactly two months away today, but should Muhammadu Buhari defeat President Goodluck Jonathan on Valentine’s Day next year, he would be inheriting an angry country with less oil money, less foreign reserves, more hardship, more instability and a split national Assembly that will lead to daily gridlock. He would become unpopular and his All Progressives Congress would lose the respect of many suffering Nigerians just months into office. Nigeria had relied on oil money for many decades, but in June this year, the price of oil began to fall from around $110 per barrel to around $70 per barrel now. As a result of the 40 percent fall, the naira, the Nigerian currency, was devalued and the government began some austerity measures. The budget expectations were scaled down and inflation has gone up. The hardship is gradually palpable. By March next year, as the price of oil reaches bottom, many economists predict, Nigeria would be facing a financial crisis and may default on its internal and external debts. The 36 governors who often travel to Abuja, the Nigerian capital, every month to share oil money, will have just enough money to pay salaries of an over bloated civil service, and nothing for capital expenditure. By the time Buhari and the other 36 governors assume office on 29 May, the country would be so financially trapped that they would become very unpopular just months into office. The anger and hardship would explode on the social media, especially Facebook and Twitter and strikes and open demonstrations would paradise the system. The anger created by the shameful primary elections that led to the emergence of the governors and the president would resurface and political parties would implode with some governors being impeached. With the Nigerian economy not diversified and 90 percent of the money coming from oil, there would be no immediate solution in sights. As anger rises and protests rock Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt and elsewhere, Boko Haram may increase attacks, killing more people and wreaking havoc in northern Nigeria. The escalation of attacks plus hunger in the land would make Buhari very unpopular even before he settles down. The anger over the electoral defeat of President Jonathan may lead to the re-emergence of the Niger Delta militants who would blow up more pipelines and kidnap more oil workers, especially expatriates. With less money, corruption would increase and attempt by Buhari to fight it would be frustrated by the courts and undermined by corrupt politicians with his own political party. As Nigeria enters that turbulent times, the social media will become king with websites such as simonateba becoming overwhelmingly popular but also the target of drowning unpopular politicians. If Buhari wins the 14 February presidential election, he may leave the presidency more tarnished, and diminished than his supporters, who are currently singing “Sai Buhari” think.
Posted on: Sun, 14 Dec 2014 08:35:08 +0000
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