By veteran Israeli activists Reuven Kaminer: Collapse of the Israeli Strategy – Part 1 and 2 Reuven Kaminer Bibi and Co. have placed John Kerry on their shit list because Kerrys draft of a proposal for a permanent cease fire coming out of the meetings in Paris reflects, inter alia, the interests of Turkey and Qatar. Kerry has to balance the different US interests in the region and this is tantamount in the eyes of the Israeli establishment to a wholesale sell-out of the Israeli interests. Bibi is angry because he assumed that the US would not dare to recommend a pattern for post-war Gaza that was not based first and foremost on Israeli interests. If he is stupid, or if he gives in to the crazies in the cabinet Bibi might try to force Kerrys hand and threaten a show down with the US administration. If you follow the Israeli media you cannot conceive that any interests besides the Israeli interests will influence how and when the Gaza crisis is resolved. It is possible that the Israeli government will refuse to make even the most minor concession to Kerry and US. But this kind of brinkmanship, in these circumstances seems like pure madness. He might squirm and cry, but Bibi has no other alternative. He is learning the hard lesson. Israel will not dictate the final resolution of the crisis in Gaza. The compromise must include Hamass patrons which will worry about its survival and interests. The length of the operation and the strength of the Hamas fighting abilities have rallied strong regional forces to its side. Israel cannot overcome this reality. It can decide on a confrontation with Obama but that seems a little too much. If it were only a matter of mutual relationships between the US and Israel, the Israelis could dream of a full retreat by Obama, but now with Qatar and Turkey in the picture, Israel has lost the decisive political battle on Gaza. Israel Cabinet Snarls – But Will it Bite? July 27, 2014 18:00 There is not a negative adjective in the book that the panelists on TV have not thrown at John Kerry. The commentators try to deal with Kerrys policy choices as a product of confusion and inefficiency and a lot of just plain stupidity. Kerrys crime, for which Israel wants to condemn him to everlasting perdition is that he has abandoned the Egyptian plan by amending it with elements proposed by Qatar and by Turkey. Israel we learn is in love with Sisi and has learned (at this point) of the virtues of Abu Mazen. Part 2 :The latest is that a mutual no-shoot arrangement is on its way. Kerry can get a lot from Bibi by ordering a review of the automatic veto in the Security Council. It looks now that Israel will be dragged screaming and frothing to a cease fire opposed as it were by every Israeli politician and will go into effect in some mysterious fashion. Sisi and Bibi lost their absolute control of the outcome of the Gaza crisis.
Posted on: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 18:30:15 +0000
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