** CLIMATE TALK - DRY TIMES LAY AHEAD FOR THE EASTERN STATES ** This is the current newer version of the Unisy sst anomalies map which at the moment is indicating cooler than normal temperatures in the Coral sea and across the Gulf of Carpentaria & Arafura seas. Humidity and Dew points are lower than normal for this time of the Year in much of Queensland due to less moisture pushing in from these seas with the trade winds therefore there has been less precipitation not just across tropical Queensland but much of eastern and central Australia in recent times. The cooler than normal temperatures represented in the blue colours & white circle could well be a sign of almost El Nino conditions in the Equatorial Pacific with warmer than normal sea surface temperatures continuing across that area (represented in the yellow and orange colours and red circle) Those climate/ocean conditions is now having a flow on effect into pro longing the dry conditions across most of eastern Australia at the moment. It would not be any surprise to us if an El Nino does get declared in the next month or two, we have generally said most the year 2014 we werent like to see an El nino declared but left the door open for early 2015 for it to possibly happen as all key El Nino indicators are in El Nino thresholds at the moment including the important 30 and 90 day SOI which continues to be in firmly in the negatives. In the long term we expect this pattern continue until at least the end of the year and perhaps to Autumn next year with generally less moisture about with below average rainfall for most of eastern Australia the coming months especially Queensland. As temps fall right back in most of SA and Vic on the weekend (after some heat next couple of days) thanks to a low, cloud cover and some rain in the short term that same wave of heat will spread into the eastern states moving into NSW and southern Qld Friday to Sunday. Brisbane may see temps as high as in the mid 30s and closer to 40c out west Friday to Sunday. A strong upper trough in the Bight and a upper high over south east Queensland is the main reason Queensland and most of inland NSW will see intense heat between Friday to Sunday before some milder air pushes up on Monday dropping temps back somewhat over most of NSW and southern Qld. Map one: Latest Unisy sea surface temperatures anomalies map indicating the blue (cooler than normal) sea surface temps off Queensland and over to the north of Australia at the moment meaning less evaporation. Map two: Rainfall deciles for October indicating the big dry as most of central, eastern and southern/south eastern Australia had a poor month in rainfall with less moisture being about. Map provided by the BOM. Map three: Temperatures predicted Friday afternoon as the intense heat shifts into inland NSW and southern Qld by the GFS model provided by BSCH. Map four: Upper pattern shown by the EC model showing the upper high over south eastern Queensland on Saturday afternoon and plenty of red too indicating very warm air in the uppers which will translate to even hotter temperatures near sea level over much of southern and south eastern Qld and northern NSW. An upper trough and low is approaching SA and Vic indicating cooler weather and some rain about. - JWC
Posted on: Tue, 11 Nov 2014 12:37:12 +0000
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