CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT...Dec 04. Classification/Name: STY Hagupit (Ruby) Location: Over the southeastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 10.7N 131.8E) About: 630 km east-northeast of Siargao Island...or 705 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 270 kph near the center...Gustiness: 320 kph 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 150 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme] Minimum Central Pressure: 907 millibars (hPa) Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 985 km (Medium) Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 140 km from the Center Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 18 kph Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 14 kph Towards: Philippine Sea 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK* STY Hagupit (Ruby) is expected to continue moving in a straight west-northwest track in the next 24 hours, turning slightly to the west through 48 hours. On the forecast track, STY Hagupit (Ruby) will be traversing the central-southern part of the Philippine Sea by Friday afternoon...and shall move with decreasing speed closer to the coast of Eastern and Northern Samar by Saturday afternoon. STY Hagupit is expected to continue to intensify throughout the outlook period as it moves over favorable environment and warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the Philippine Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing further to 285 kph by Saturday afternoon. The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system: FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify as it traverses the central-southern part of the Philippine Sea...about 415 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM DEC 05: 11.6N 129.2E @ 270kph]. SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches its peak wind strength as it slows down while approaching the coast of Northeastern Samar...about 140 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM DEC 06: 12.0N 126.6E @ 260kph]. SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly after making landfall over Northern Samar...over San Bernardino Strait...and lands anew on the southern tip of Sorsogon...about 50 km south-southeast of Sorsogon City [2PM DEC 07: 12.6N 124.2E @ 240kph]. *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Posted on: Thu, 04 Dec 2014 14:04:06 +0000
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