Convective Outlook Overnight: Thunderstorms Convective Outlook Today Through Tonight: Thunderstorms 5% Chance of Damaging Winds Convective Outlook Tomorrow Through Tomorrow Night: Thunder Convective Outlook Sunday Through Sunday Night: Thunderstorms (SPC AC 280723 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL MT WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND GREAT FALLS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ...ATLANTIC SEABOARD... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F. AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED CELLS INITIATE...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR MULTICELLS. THE MORE INTENSE MULTICELLS OR PULSE STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..BROYLES.. 06/28/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0738Z (3:38AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME)
Posted on: Fri, 28 Jun 2013 07:38:47 +0000
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