DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LATEST UPDATE) NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT THU SEP 05 2013 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE PAC NW EWD INTO PARTS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED ALONG ITS NWRN PERIPHERY...AS AN UPPER LOW WHICH HAS LINGERED FOR SEVERAL DAYS JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST SHIFTS INTO WA/OREGON WITH TIME. MEANWHILE IN THE EAST...A SLOW EWD SHIFT IN THE TROUGH AXIS OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. IS EXPECTED. THOUGH SOME SERN U.S. CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE REMNANT SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN TROUGH...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. ...PAC NW VICINITY... WITH A SLOW ONSHORE SHIFT OF THE UPPER LOW UNDERWAY...CONTINUED MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT. RESULTING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NWRN U.S. COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR CONTINUES TO SET THE STAGE FOR RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED/ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...MAXIMIZING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT LIKELY CONTINUING IN AT LEAST A MARGINAL/ISOLATED CAPACITY WELL INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FULLY ONSHORE. ..GOSS/MOSIER.. 09/05/2013
Posted on: Thu, 05 Sep 2013 16:59:38 +0000
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