DYNAMICS OF 2014 ELECTIONS I still posit that the outcome of the October 2014 will largely be determined by the youth, middle class and public servants. The youth especially the graduates have hard done by and are feeling the ramifications of a non-visionary economy as their unemployment is soaring year after year. As for the civil servants, theirs has been a #war with govt and their conditions seems not to improve since the last 6 years. Well, for middle class the effect of socio-economics is taking its toll as their household debts is soaring unrepented and its already crippling their purchasing powers and saturating their pockets. For the urbanites, things might get worse as there is a looming local #recession that might hit dard on the housing markets. It will be a shame if the middle class can start to exercise cautionary expenditure as this will hurt the retail and financing markets. During the UDC President Duma Boko launch last Saturday I was amazed a bit to see the who is who in society in attendance mostly middle class urbanites. Also in large attendance were civil servants some high ranking officials. You ask them their interest and you are met with the new code:#Moono. I still dont think BDP will tap most votes from middle class and public servants and youth. Perhaps youths in deplorable social circumstances who depend on govt will offer BDP some votes. But then begs the question, how does BDP lose Kgalagadi North, Ngami & Chobe? Mrs Botlogile Tshireletso might find it tough in one of the poorest constituencies in Botswana that is Mahalapye East. There are 4 candidates this time around and 3 of them are all former BDP bulelwa ditswe rejects. This years elections are very unpredictable and opposition has made a lot of inroads. BCP thouh deemed least favourite, can shock BDP in Ramokgonami-Sefhare (Dorcas Makgatu-Malesu) and Bobirwa (Shaw Kgathi) and even Kanye South. BDP might benefit heavily on split votes in a number of constituencies. Though there are always undecided and swing voters, I dont know how much numbers nor percentage they make. But my suspicions is that the game changers are the trio that I mentioned earlier. On the plus side, there is a likelyhood of say 15- 20% virgin voters. With what happened since 2009, some loyal BDP voters might switch sides and vote opposite. My money is on Chedza Mogae, Festus Mogaes daughter, former Presidents Sir QKJ Masire and FG Mogae to vote for opposition. Moabi Masire, Sir QKJs son is a BMD member so he is UDC by association. #InterestingTimes
Posted on: Wed, 08 Oct 2014 06:48:08 +0000
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