Daily Grain Notes 17, September 2013 americanagmarketing Written By: Sherwood Tucker Corn After initially opening unchanged in the night session and trading 12 cents higher Dec13 Corn ended today’s session at $4.54 down 2 ½ cents a new 1 month low. The FSA released their September data early this morning, estimating planted acres at 91.4 mil and 3.6 acres going to prevent plant, totaling 95 mil acres, which is 2.4 mil below the Sept. estimate from the USDA at 97.4 million and is baffling the trade as to Why (?) USDA acres are not smaller. One possible answer is that last month the USDA came out unchanged at 97.4 planted acres and 89.1 harvested acres. We should eventually see a drop in the harvested acreage number, but not the 6 million some analysts are calling for. Keep in mind that there are 3 – 4 million acres (or more) of non-program corn planted every year. The Dec13 vs. Mar14 spread was unchanged trading at a full carry of 12 ½ cents. Funds are net long about 8500 contracts in this week’s report after being short approx. 19K contracts in the previous report out by the CFTC. Our key reversal area would still be a close above $4.75, to the upside with key support coming in at the previous lows of $4.45 and then $4.09. Current price is trading below the 55 day moving average, indicating that the market is still in a downtrend and speculative accounts may look to sell rallies in the $4.80 cent area. If you’d like specific recommendations feel free to call or email us. Current Quotes: Dec.13 Corn: $4.54 March 14: $4.66 ½ Dec13 Corn Chart Soybeans Nov13 Beans stayed range bound again today but did make a run at the gap from Aug 23rd at $13.31 ½ hitting a low for today’s session of $13.32 before rallying to close out the session at $13.42 down 6 ¼ cents. The Nov13 vs. Jan14. spread did manage to close at a ¾ cent carry, which is tight going into harvest. Basis has been weakening, especially in the Western Midwest. The FSA upped their Prevent Plant number to 1.68 million from 1.61 million last month in the August report. Rain is moving up from the South leaving scattered showers over parts of Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma, with most needed SW Iowa receiving anywhere from .25” – 1.0” inches which probably will not do much to help Soybean yields in these areas but it definitely can’t hurt. More rain is being forecast over the next 10-15 day time period for the bulk of the Midwest. As of the latest CFTC report Funds are long approx. 155,000 contracts total, pretty much unchanged from the previous report. Key resistance is still at the Double Top price area of $14.10, with key support at the “filling in the gap” price of $13.31 ½, which was almost filled today, and then $12.90 coming in as support after that. If you’d like specific recommendations feel free to call or email us. Current Quotes: Nov.13 Beans: $13.42 Jan.14 Beans: $13.42 ¾ Nov.13 Soybeans – Chart Wheat Out of the 3 markets today Wheat was the only to be able to close in positive territory closing at $6.42 up ¾ cent and still maintaining its key support level of $6.40 even with Funds now net short 50,500 contract in Chicago up about 7K contract from the prior week. The Ukraine reported their grain harvest at 34.06 MMT’s which is about 21% above last year’s number on the same date, with yields running at near 20% above last year. Russia’s grain harvest is at 71.1 MMT’s, up from 62.2 MMT last year with yields about 20% ahead of last year’s pace. The daily chart trend has been pretty much range bound since harvest but still trending slightly lower after KC Wheat found contract lows last week. Argentina remains dry, further increasing Brazil to be more dependent on US wheat in the short term. Dec13 Wheat is hanging on to key support at the $6.40 level, and resistance now coming in at $6.54 and then $6.65 if the market can trade higher. Price is still well below the 55-day moving average but creeping up on the 20 day moving average at $6.49, actually challenging $6.52 today before retreating. If you’d like specific recommendations feel free to call or email us. Current Quotes: Dec.13 Wheat: $6.42 Mar.14 Wheat: $6.52 ¾ Dec.13 Wheat – Chart Have a great night All the Best, Sherwood Tucker 312-987-2072 americanagmarketing To UNSUBSCRIBE please send me an email.. DISCLAIMER: THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION. THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY AN AMERICAN AG. MARKETING & TRADING COMPANY BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES. AMERICAN AG. 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Posted on: Wed, 18 Sep 2013 02:07:50 +0000
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