Daperi Amachree wrote a NICE article .... in support of kalabari guber aspiration in rivers state ... balanced write up ... and the hope to use federal ALMIGHTY ( since federal MIGHT couldnt impeach amaechi) to rig elections in rivers state 2015: PDP Playing into the Hands of APC in Rivers Rivers State had belonged to the PDP since 1999, but by what is going on right now in the political scene in the state, this may change in 2015. Many factors point to this. Let us examine the factors that can help each of the parties have upper hand in the polls come 2015. The PDP’s power is hinged on the popularity of President Jonathan; the fact that his wife hails from the state; and the fact that PDP government controls all the security apparatus in the country. Also, the state belonged to the PDP originally. APC’s power is hinged on the fact that the state government and its resources is in their hands, and all elective office holders, who have a lot of dependent followers belong to the party. On the other hand, the PDP is disadvantaged as follows: Some people in sections of the state like the kalabaris have the opinion that the president is using his power to take oil wells that belong to them to Bayelsa, his state of origin. Also, the botched attempt to impeach the Speaker of the State House of Assembly, the projection of a character such as Hon. Bipi as a front liner in that project, has thrown the party in a bad light. As for the APC, the long drawn confrontation the governor has had with the president has given him and the party an image of being treacherous to their own kinsman, President Jonathan. Considering the advantages and disadvantages that the two parties have, the battle is likely to be a very close one, with the PDP having a slight edge. The only factor that will tilt the victory to any of the parties would be the quality of the flag bearers the parties will throw up for the election. The candidates to be thrown up by the two parties will depend on the preference of their respective dominant godfathers: Wife of the president in the PDP, and Governor Amaechi in the APC. From recent indications in the field, the first lady is likely to favour the Education Minister, Nyesom Wike, to fly the flag of the PDP, while governor Amaechi is totally opposed to the idea of another Ikwerre man to succeed him as governor. This is exactly where the odds will favour the APC. Already, the first lady has committed a lot of blunders that has put the PDP in bad light, the most glaring of which is the scandalous outing of Hon. Evans Bipi. If she adds to all these with the endorsement of Wike, then of course, the popularity, and hence the chances of the PDP in winning the 2015 polls in Rivers will be very slim indeed. This is because ethnic sentiment is still very much alive, and very much a factor in the politics of this country, Rivers State inclusive. To wish it away due to selfish interests and political expediency is to play the ostritch. In fielding Wike, the only factor the PDP will be hoping on will be the factor that the police and INEC is federally controlled, but these factors can only play major roles where the incumbent state government is not in the opposition party. Democracy in Nigeria has evolved tremendously since 1999. A forged or manipulated electoral verdict can be overturned by the judiciary, if enough evidence is tendered that there was no fair play. If the PDP should use the federal might to rig the elections, the APC is powerful enough, with state resources at their disposal, to provide more than enough evidence to upturn such a result. Moreover, it takes people to rig elections, and fielding Wike or Ateke as flag bearers of the party, is definitely the easiest way to drastically reduce the goodwill, whcih the PDP is still enjoying because of President Jonathan. In the Kalabari area especially, where the issue of oil blocks has significantly eroded the president’s acceptance, the neglect of the area in the selection of a flag bearer for the party, will definitely sway the people in the direction of a better alternative in the APC; and If the governor leaves his ethnic Ikwerre, and brings out a riverine candidate, you can be sure that APC will win in that area, because many people who are now supporting PDP will defect in protest to the APC. In a nutshell, if the PDP continues to toy with the idea of projecting Wike as their gubernatorial flag bearer, they will end up shooting themselves in the foot; but if at this time, both Wike and the first lady will act as king makers, and in concert with other stake holders choose a credible riverine candidate, only then will the federal might be relevant in the political calculations in 2015. That is the situation.
Posted on: Sat, 19 Apr 2014 14:58:13 +0000
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